Analysis & Comments.

Here is a well though analysis on the failed theoretical concept on Somalia and names of  some so-called "Thinkers" who do not understand nothing about the historical factors and the ones at play in the " so- called perpetual failed" state situat

ion in the Somali Republic. I will add that there have always been an Ethiopian Agenda and Al-ittixad movement Agenda in the destruction of Somalia (from the 80" planned by Menghiste and the Somali  Al-ittixad political movement) and in the sub-sequent institution building of Somali land and Punt land as Building blocks and models for Somalia preplanned by Ethiopia. Professor Menkhaus is not Somali and could not understand the Clan based  culture of the Somali which is biggest political vehicle used by the Ethiopians and Al-Itticad to make their power base among the Somalis and use as clan-based political movement to destroy the country.. Somalis are one ethnic or Clan  group but for historical reasons linked to their survival and subsistence-nomadic  way of life their fought each other for centuries for water and pasture and camel raids with very far Clans or sub-Clan- neighbors.That culture of fighting has been made into folklore and poetry is the backbone of the history of every Clan and sub-clan. Every sub-clan has ingrained in their hitorical mind the wars theiy fought aganist other Somalis.The Anti- Colonialist and before them  the Somali freedom fighters who fought the Ethiopians and the British/Italians  have started the concept of a centralized Somalia as a culture and Nation who speaks the same language and have same ancestry., religion. .The S.Y.L political movement  and the political parties of the north have decided to unite the the Somali speaking sub-Clans of the Horn and  that went against the expansionist plans of the Ethiopian regime of that time which have participated in the Berlin Conference for the scramble of Africa. The Ethiopians knew that Somalia have great deal of Oil and Gas  in their Somali region( region  five of Ethiopia ) and have planned that to get that Oil & Gas  they have to destroy Somali and subjugate them to their hegemony as  a  SUB-DIVIDED MINI-CLAN ENCLAVES BUNTUSTAN BREAK-AWAY Republics.. As a matter of fact in the new Somali constitution Somalia have been subdivided in new States and we have a ready made Confederation of Somali States.The last Somali conference to approve the new constitution the Elders who were there at  the constituent assembly refused to ratify  it.Only after the promise that things will be changed at the next parliament they passed it reluctantly. The Al-ittixad political movement has partecipated in that destruction why they have the agenda to change completely the secular system which was based the Somali republic.Both have used the Clan based political opposition movement to destroy and start a new one based on their ideas and plans.Wait and see.

Destructive Governance Model for Somalia: the case of Prof Ken Menkhaus

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Immediately after the imposition of the Provisional Constitution (PC) establishing a medieval model of governance in Somalia, Prof Ken Menkhaus, scholar and

Comments.Wait and see.

I think the West and the Arab world must do more to help Somalis in general.Somalia in general is hostage to Ethiopia and Al-shabaab-Al-Qaida. A hostage-nation which needs to be helped in liberating themselves.But it needs that in the first phase more technical-know- how and manpower of the fight against those enemies must be deployed.The State structures and institution existing now is made to he

lp those two groups to hold Somalia hostage.From 2004 till know the Ethiopians and IGAD have discouraged a National Somali state and encouraged and made a so- called Clan based Bantustan type administrations in all over Somalia. For the Ethiopians the existence of Al-Shabaab is part of their game plans to have a Somalia "failed State" and a security situation where they are always needed.The destabilization plans going on now in Mogadishu are against the new Change in government which is against the short and long term plans of the Tigre regime of Ethiopia and Al-shabaab.The new President has a lot of enemies in the Horn which would like to make him helpless and give up the fight and have "Business as usual". In other words to accept like some of his predecessors the Plans of Ethiopia and Al-shabaab to sub-divide Somalia and have a safe-haven to Organized crime and International terrorism. Wait and see.

#Somalia: Analyis& Comments.

#Somalia: Analyis& Comments.: We must know that the idea of a "iJihadist Islam" which fights other Somalis has not been feasible in Somalia for at least the last fi...

Analyis& Comments.

We must know that the idea of a "iJihadist Islam" which fights other Somalis has not been feasible in Somalia for at least the last five years.We have seen the failed experiment of The Islamic courts and the sub-sequent resurgence and of

Al_shabaab joining Al-Qaida. All failed because the Somalis got tired and understood the "wrong" ideas and plans of this groups. Al-shabaab has used just like the warlords-drug-barons( linked to Ethiopia) to take power and hold to it the concepts of sub-clans,the control of resources( including the local business and its licensing) and the Islamic Religion to woo the youngsters and the idealist. All the use of this concepts including the sacred one of the religion have failed .What we need know is a Somali national State which unites all Somali clan-communities,have a just economic vision where the role of the state as regulator and participation in the economic sector is for the Somali society. Where our religion is not used anymore to kill and acquire power for a Somali group or Jihadist transnational.To implement all those ideas we need a State which is representative of every clan and sub-clan. The international community must help the Somalis to resurrect their pride,nation-hood and stop the meddling of regional powers in controlling the Somali Elites and imposing on them puppet leaders and Warlords who never wont a peaceful and just Somali republic.The international community must help the Somalis to have a strong regulatory and administration for our economy because Organized crimes groups are controlling big chunks of our economy together with the Al-ittixad business cartels( a wahhabi salafist group) which has monopolized the Somali Republic economy and national resources.Wait and see.

Somalia: Al Shabaab fighters in mass surrender in Jowhar

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Nairobi, Kenya - The African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) has registered its biggest victory in Somalia yet, with the surrender of more than 200 Islamist insurgents of Al Shabaab, following disagreements within the group's ranks that led to the factional killing of eight of its fighters, AMISOM...

#Somalia: Change has came to Somalia? With a surpriise.

#Somalia: Change has came to Somalia? With a surprise.:     Last night there was a celebration in the small district of Eastleigh,Nairobi Kenya  where the biggest concentration of Somali refuge...

Change has came to Somalia? With a surpriise.

    Last night there was a celebration in the small district of Eastleigh,Nairobi Kenya  where the biggest concentration of Somali refugees and business community outside of Mogadishu lives and work. There was a celebration for the election of the new Somali president-elect Mr. Hassan Sheik Mohamud.Who is this man? What interests he represents? How he succeeded in the high wire competition where regional powers- mainly Ethiopia and in small measure Uganda and local business interest( All-Ittixad Business Cartels ),Warlords-Drug barons ,Puppet leaders allied to the Tigre regime were dictating who will win the race?
    Here I will try to answer to this questions. But first I would like to tell that myself have to eat humble pie because I thought the Old regime will be back. What happened?
     Mr. Hassan Sheik is from academia having started a private College of management studies in Mogadishu and having also opened a branch in Punt land region. He was active in the Civil society circles and also came to my knowledge four months ago when I heard him debating on The BBC.Somali service about the infamous Road map and the corruption and mismanagement in the regime of the two Sherifs(the former speaker and the former president).
      In the last six months he started canvassing about every imaginable group and most importantly he had his own party called the party of Peace and Development through which he started a Coalition Building with all the groups who were in the opposition. Prof. Samater who came from the U.S ,Mr. Formajo the former Prime minister and the other presidential contenders including the last incumbent Prime Minister were in agreement to fight together the incumbent President and during the voting sessions to put all their efforts in who has got more votes after the first round.
     Mr. Hassan the president –elect succeeded to garner all the votes necessary in the first round coming second and in the second round all his friends-competitors in the opposition including the incumbent Prime minister choose to support him in the last round against the incumbent president. It was the victory of the Change vote and it was the victory of the people-citizens compared to the Old regime.
     Every body agrees in all the Somalis I myself canvassed that the Game-changer factors in terms of the election were Three: the first is the newly-re-found alliance the between the two sheriffs (the incumbent president and the former notorious Speaker) which was declared last Sunday  has made everybody angered and instead of helping damaged the incumbent president. The notorious former speaker represented everything bad in Somali society and state in other words the corruption, mismanagement, the Tigre influence and most dangerously the monopoly of the Al-Ittixad business cartels all allied to the incumbent president. The other factor was for some clan- communities the words of Mr. Farole of Puntland that if some groups are elected he will secede from Somalia.  All those factors made the MPs linked to the puppet leaders to rebel and support Mr. Hassan who was allied to Farole and do not came from the same region. Another factor is the support the incumbent President has from the Warlords-Drug barons for whom he fought for their re-admission in the List of the nominated parliamentarians which was done yesterday before the presidential election. All this factors made even the parliamentarians linked to the puppet leaders allied to the Tigre rebel and vote in bloc refusing their Whips-warlords-Puppet leaders to vote for the incumbent President. What a historic day. For the first time the parliamentarians chosen by the warlords-puppet leaders decided to vote with their minds and hearts free from those oppressive groups and voted for Change, Somali national interest etc.
      Last but not least the Somali Civil society  and the International Community in Mogadishu have encouraged and nurtured this would be Change and have taken a neutral role when came to choose  the successor of the incumbent president. Who are the winners and the losers? My guess is for the first time the Somalis have chosen democratically a leader who is not under the influence and dictation of the Ethiopian regimes. Secondly a leader who is not blatantly linked to the Al-Ittixad business cartels, Warlords-drug-barons and puppet leaders. Change has come to Somalia. But I suspect all those reactionary forces will try to stop this change and will work very hard to make things difficult for him and the Somalis in general. I believe the international community and Amisom must show strong  commitment to fight against  the enemies of Change in Somalia and that they will stand for what the Somali people have chosen. This new President needs a strong team of like minded technocrats and intellectuals which are not linked to corruption and past mismanagement plus broad-based plans to solve all ills and problems like the issue on institution building in a national federal government .Wait and see.

Written /September 11/2012.

The next genaration of Tigre-sponsored- government ? Wait and see

                   To tell the truth (political ) about Somalia in this last week has became a very complicated issue.
From 2004 when the first so- called government was installed in Maghabati,Nairobi by the IGAD group sperheeded  and lead by Ethiopia thinghs have been easy to interpretet because there was only one real actor and you followed that lead.What Ethiopia dictated was followed.Period.Now days thinghs look more convoluted and mixed up.More actors-regional and global  have came into play and more game-plans are and scenarios are being sold to the politician and the Somali clan- based political groupings. 
        The political game plan envisaged by the late Meles who was the teal kingmaker of Somali politics has succeeded almost because was executed  by the so- called group of six which was preparing and choosing the new members of parliament and the Clan-based  alliances to elect the new speaker and the new President , First premier.
          My analysis tells me that that plan succesed at least as 65% of the Parliamentarians are linked to the Puppet leaders who are Loyal to the Tigre regime of Ethiopia. and a mere 15%  is so- called Islamist linked to the incumbent President. The Nationalist and Democrats  are maybe 10 members of Parliament but well know and with a fiery stand on Somali issiues.The rest is opportunistic groups from every clans which will follow  the winning groups.
           At that point still things were looking and  could be understood and interpreted in the Old way Fashion and  the plans of the Tigre -sponsored puppet leaders was winning.But came the rejection of the Warlords- drug barons in the lists of the new parliament  and the puppet leaders looking  panicking and confused.There is the suspicion within the Warlords groups that the Tire regime is dumping some of them and retaining only the puppet Leaders. For the Ethiopians the Warlords maybe have became too  cumbersome and a dangerous political alliance.But they are retaining they strong alliance with the former speaker and the regional president of Puntland: this two are the real representative of the Tigre Regime of Ethiopia now in Somali politics. The incumbent president was left alone and that was one of the reasons him and his competitor the incumbent Prime minister went to the funerals of Meles in the middle of the presidential election to seek the approval and support of the Tigre regime.
          If you follow the the old scenario the new speaker has been elected by the alliance of some clans allied to the puppet leaders and other against them.The latest is the the new speaker has carved for himself a political space and would like to dethrone the Old speaker from which are the same sub-Clans and political group.Could it be true?

          The main contenders of the presidential election which would be held tomorrow  are from my point of view: the incumbent prime Minister,The incumbent President and the former Prime Minister Mr. Formajo and two new contenders in the name of a professor Samantar and Mr. Badiyow a declared brotherhood- Islamist with nationalist credentials.The first two enjoyed the support of the Tigre regime in the last three years and my opinion is the Addis-abeba  regime will stand by one of them. Mr. Formajo who is liked by most Somalis and started the current change in Somalia is hated by the Tigre because he doers not accept the sub-division of Somalia in  a Confederate State.
      The latest in Eastleigh is the former Speaker has asked Mr. Formajo and Abdiweli the incumbent premier that if they wont the votes of his regions-Clans they must promise the amnesty from prosecution for him and the warlords-drug barons. The only new story is if the new Speaker will stand for a change or his Clans- mate and those of the North west members of Parliament will follow the lead of the puppet Leaders linked to the Ethiopians. All other MPS are strong supporters of the President or the Prime minister.Wait and see.