Change has came to Somalia? With a surpriise.

    Last night there was a celebration in the small district of Eastleigh,Nairobi Kenya  where the biggest concentration of Somali refugees and business community outside of Mogadishu lives and work. There was a celebration for the election of the new Somali president-elect Mr. Hassan Sheik Mohamud.Who is this man? What interests he represents? How he succeeded in the high wire competition where regional powers- mainly Ethiopia and in small measure Uganda and local business interest( All-Ittixad Business Cartels ),Warlords-Drug barons ,Puppet leaders allied to the Tigre regime were dictating who will win the race?
    Here I will try to answer to this questions. But first I would like to tell that myself have to eat humble pie because I thought the Old regime will be back. What happened?
     Mr. Hassan Sheik is from academia having started a private College of management studies in Mogadishu and having also opened a branch in Punt land region. He was active in the Civil society circles and also came to my knowledge four months ago when I heard him debating on The BBC.Somali service about the infamous Road map and the corruption and mismanagement in the regime of the two Sherifs(the former speaker and the former president).
      In the last six months he started canvassing about every imaginable group and most importantly he had his own party called the party of Peace and Development through which he started a Coalition Building with all the groups who were in the opposition. Prof. Samater who came from the U.S ,Mr. Formajo the former Prime minister and the other presidential contenders including the last incumbent Prime Minister were in agreement to fight together the incumbent President and during the voting sessions to put all their efforts in who has got more votes after the first round.
     Mr. Hassan the president –elect succeeded to garner all the votes necessary in the first round coming second and in the second round all his friends-competitors in the opposition including the incumbent Prime minister choose to support him in the last round against the incumbent president. It was the victory of the Change vote and it was the victory of the people-citizens compared to the Old regime.
     Every body agrees in all the Somalis I myself canvassed that the Game-changer factors in terms of the election were Three: the first is the newly-re-found alliance the between the two sheriffs (the incumbent president and the former notorious Speaker) which was declared last Sunday  has made everybody angered and instead of helping damaged the incumbent president. The notorious former speaker represented everything bad in Somali society and state in other words the corruption, mismanagement, the Tigre influence and most dangerously the monopoly of the Al-Ittixad business cartels all allied to the incumbent president. The other factor was for some clan- communities the words of Mr. Farole of Puntland that if some groups are elected he will secede from Somalia.  All those factors made the MPs linked to the puppet leaders to rebel and support Mr. Hassan who was allied to Farole and do not came from the same region. Another factor is the support the incumbent President has from the Warlords-Drug barons for whom he fought for their re-admission in the List of the nominated parliamentarians which was done yesterday before the presidential election. All this factors made even the parliamentarians linked to the puppet leaders allied to the Tigre rebel and vote in bloc refusing their Whips-warlords-Puppet leaders to vote for the incumbent President. What a historic day. For the first time the parliamentarians chosen by the warlords-puppet leaders decided to vote with their minds and hearts free from those oppressive groups and voted for Change, Somali national interest etc.
      Last but not least the Somali Civil society  and the International Community in Mogadishu have encouraged and nurtured this would be Change and have taken a neutral role when came to choose  the successor of the incumbent president. Who are the winners and the losers? My guess is for the first time the Somalis have chosen democratically a leader who is not under the influence and dictation of the Ethiopian regimes. Secondly a leader who is not blatantly linked to the Al-Ittixad business cartels, Warlords-drug-barons and puppet leaders. Change has come to Somalia. But I suspect all those reactionary forces will try to stop this change and will work very hard to make things difficult for him and the Somalis in general. I believe the international community and Amisom must show strong  commitment to fight against  the enemies of Change in Somalia and that they will stand for what the Somali people have chosen. This new President needs a strong team of like minded technocrats and intellectuals which are not linked to corruption and past mismanagement plus broad-based plans to solve all ills and problems like the issue on institution building in a national federal government .Wait and see.

Written /September 11/2012.

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