To tell the truth (political ) about Somalia in this last week has became a very complicated issue.
From 2004 when the first so- called government was installed in Maghabati,Nairobi by the IGAD group sperheeded and lead by Ethiopia thinghs have been easy to interpretet because there was only one real actor and you followed that lead.What Ethiopia dictated was followed.Period.Now days thinghs look more convoluted and mixed up.More actors-regional and global have came into play and more game-plans are and scenarios are being sold to the politician and the Somali clan- based political groupings.
The political game plan envisaged by the late Meles who was the teal kingmaker of Somali politics has succeeded almost because was executed by the so- called group of six which was preparing and choosing the new members of parliament and the Clan-based alliances to elect the new speaker and the new President , First premier.
My analysis tells me that that plan succesed at least as 65% of the Parliamentarians are linked to the Puppet leaders who are Loyal to the Tigre regime of Ethiopia. and a mere 15% is so- called Islamist linked to the incumbent President. The Nationalist and Democrats are maybe 10 members of Parliament but well know and with a fiery stand on Somali issiues.The rest is opportunistic groups from every clans which will follow the winning groups.
At that point still things were looking and could be understood and interpreted in the Old way Fashion and the plans of the Tigre -sponsored puppet leaders was winning.But came the rejection of the Warlords- drug barons in the lists of the new parliament and the puppet leaders looking panicking and confused.There is the suspicion within the Warlords groups that the Tire regime is dumping some of them and retaining only the puppet Leaders. For the Ethiopians the Warlords maybe have became too cumbersome and a dangerous political alliance.But they are retaining they strong alliance with the former speaker and the regional president of Puntland: this two are the real representative of the Tigre Regime of Ethiopia now in Somali politics. The incumbent president was left alone and that was one of the reasons him and his competitor the incumbent Prime minister went to the funerals of Meles in the middle of the presidential election to seek the approval and support of the Tigre regime.
If you follow the the old scenario the new speaker has been elected by the alliance of some clans allied to the puppet leaders and other against them.The latest is the the new speaker has carved for himself a political space and would like to dethrone the Old speaker from which are the same sub-Clans and political group.Could it be true?
The main contenders of the presidential election which would be held tomorrow are from my point of view: the incumbent prime Minister,The incumbent President and the former Prime Minister Mr. Formajo and two new contenders in the name of a professor Samantar and Mr. Badiyow a declared brotherhood- Islamist with nationalist credentials.The first two enjoyed the support of the Tigre regime in the last three years and my opinion is the Addis-abeba regime will stand by one of them. Mr. Formajo who is liked by most Somalis and started the current change in Somalia is hated by the Tigre because he doers not accept the sub-division of Somalia in a Confederate State.
The latest in Eastleigh is the former Speaker has asked Mr. Formajo and Abdiweli the incumbent premier that if they wont the votes of his regions-Clans they must promise the amnesty from prosecution for him and the warlords-drug barons. The only new story is if the new Speaker will stand for a change or his Clans- mate and those of the North west members of Parliament will follow the lead of the puppet Leaders linked to the Ethiopians. All other MPS are strong supporters of the President or the Prime minister.Wait and see.
From 2004 when the first so- called government was installed in Maghabati,Nairobi by the IGAD group sperheeded and lead by Ethiopia thinghs have been easy to interpretet because there was only one real actor and you followed that lead.What Ethiopia dictated was followed.Period.Now days thinghs look more convoluted and mixed up.More actors-regional and global have came into play and more game-plans are and scenarios are being sold to the politician and the Somali clan- based political groupings.
The political game plan envisaged by the late Meles who was the teal kingmaker of Somali politics has succeeded almost because was executed by the so- called group of six which was preparing and choosing the new members of parliament and the Clan-based alliances to elect the new speaker and the new President , First premier.
My analysis tells me that that plan succesed at least as 65% of the Parliamentarians are linked to the Puppet leaders who are Loyal to the Tigre regime of Ethiopia. and a mere 15% is so- called Islamist linked to the incumbent President. The Nationalist and Democrats are maybe 10 members of Parliament but well know and with a fiery stand on Somali issiues.The rest is opportunistic groups from every clans which will follow the winning groups.
At that point still things were looking and could be understood and interpreted in the Old way Fashion and the plans of the Tigre -sponsored puppet leaders was winning.But came the rejection of the Warlords- drug barons in the lists of the new parliament and the puppet leaders looking panicking and confused.There is the suspicion within the Warlords groups that the Tire regime is dumping some of them and retaining only the puppet Leaders. For the Ethiopians the Warlords maybe have became too cumbersome and a dangerous political alliance.But they are retaining they strong alliance with the former speaker and the regional president of Puntland: this two are the real representative of the Tigre Regime of Ethiopia now in Somali politics. The incumbent president was left alone and that was one of the reasons him and his competitor the incumbent Prime minister went to the funerals of Meles in the middle of the presidential election to seek the approval and support of the Tigre regime.
If you follow the the old scenario the new speaker has been elected by the alliance of some clans allied to the puppet leaders and other against them.The latest is the the new speaker has carved for himself a political space and would like to dethrone the Old speaker from which are the same sub-Clans and political group.Could it be true?
The main contenders of the presidential election which would be held tomorrow are from my point of view: the incumbent prime Minister,The incumbent President and the former Prime Minister Mr. Formajo and two new contenders in the name of a professor Samantar and Mr. Badiyow a declared brotherhood- Islamist with nationalist credentials.The first two enjoyed the support of the Tigre regime in the last three years and my opinion is the Addis-abeba regime will stand by one of them. Mr. Formajo who is liked by most Somalis and started the current change in Somalia is hated by the Tigre because he doers not accept the sub-division of Somalia in a Confederate State.
The latest in Eastleigh is the former Speaker has asked Mr. Formajo and Abdiweli the incumbent premier that if they wont the votes of his regions-Clans they must promise the amnesty from prosecution for him and the warlords-drug barons. The only new story is if the new Speaker will stand for a change or his Clans- mate and those of the North west members of Parliament will follow the lead of the puppet Leaders linked to the Ethiopians. All other MPS are strong supporters of the President or the Prime minister.Wait and see.
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