Last night there was a celebration in the small district of
Eastleigh,Nairobi Kenya where the biggest concentration of Somali
refugees and business community outside of Mogadishu lives and work.
There was a celebration for the election of the new Somali
president-elect Mr. Hassan Sheik Mohamud.Who is this man? What interests
he represents? How he succeeded in the high wire competition where
regional powers- mainly Ethiopia and in small measure Uganda and local
business interest( All-Ittixad Business Cartels ),Warlords-Drug barons
,Puppet leaders allied to the Tigre regime were dictating who will win
the race?
Here I will try to answer to this questions. But
first I would like to tell that myself have to eat humble pie because I
thought the Old regime will be back. What happened?
Mr.
Hassan Sheik is from academia having started a private College of
management studies in Mogadishu and having also opened a branch in Punt
land region. He was active in the Civil society circles and also came to
my knowledge four months ago when I heard him debating on The
BBC.Somali service about the infamous Road map and the corruption and
mismanagement in the regime of the two Sherifs(the former speaker and
the former president).
In the last six months he started
canvassing about every imaginable group and most importantly he had his
own party called the party of Peace and Development through which he
started a Coalition Building with all the groups who were in the
opposition. Prof. Samater who came from the U.S ,Mr. Formajo the former
Prime minister and the other presidential contenders including the last
incumbent Prime Minister were in agreement to fight together the
incumbent President and during the voting sessions to put all their
efforts in who has got more votes after the first round.
Mr.
Hassan the president –elect succeeded to garner all the votes necessary
in the first round coming second and in the second round all his
friends-competitors in the opposition including the incumbent Prime
minister choose to support him in the last round against the incumbent
president. It was the victory of the Change vote and it was the victory
of the people-citizens compared to the Old regime.
Every body
agrees in all the Somalis I myself canvassed that the Game-changer
factors in terms of the election were Three: the first is the
newly-re-found alliance the between the two sheriffs (the incumbent
president and the former notorious Speaker) which was declared last
Sunday has made everybody angered and instead of helping damaged the
incumbent president. The notorious former speaker represented everything
bad in Somali society and state in other words the corruption,
mismanagement, the Tigre influence and most dangerously the monopoly of
the Al-Ittixad business cartels all allied to the incumbent president.
The other factor was for some clan- communities the words of Mr. Farole
of Puntland that if some groups are elected he will secede from Somalia.
All those factors made the MPs linked to the puppet leaders to rebel
and support Mr. Hassan who was allied to Farole and do not came from the
same region. Another factor is the support the incumbent President has
from the Warlords-Drug barons for whom he fought for their re-admission
in the List of the nominated parliamentarians which was done yesterday
before the presidential election. All this factors made even the
parliamentarians linked to the puppet leaders allied to the Tigre rebel
and vote in bloc refusing their Whips-warlords-Puppet leaders to vote
for the incumbent President. What a historic day. For the first time the
parliamentarians chosen by the warlords-puppet leaders decided to vote
with their minds and hearts free from those oppressive groups and voted
for Change, Somali national interest etc.
Last but not least
the Somali Civil society and the International Community in Mogadishu
have encouraged and nurtured this would be Change and have taken a
neutral role when came to choose the successor of the incumbent
president. Who are the winners and the losers? My guess is for the first
time the Somalis have chosen democratically a leader who is not under
the influence and dictation of the Ethiopian regimes. Secondly a leader
who is not blatantly linked to the Al-Ittixad business cartels,
Warlords-drug-barons and puppet leaders. Change has come to Somalia. But
I suspect all those reactionary forces will try to stop this change and
will work very hard to make things difficult for him and the Somalis in
general. I believe the international community and Amisom must show
strong commitment to fight against the enemies of Change in Somalia
and that they will stand for what the Somali people have chosen. This
new President needs a strong team of like minded technocrats and
intellectuals which are not linked to corruption and past mismanagement
plus broad-based plans to solve all ills and problems like the issue on
institution building in a national federal government .Wait and see.
Written /September 11/2012.
