Tuesday, December 24, 2013
For the New PM of SOMALIA:Lessons from a recent Past. Part 1..Wait and see
Let me first start by saying the CV of Mr. Abdiweli Sheik Ahmed PM elect is overwhelming when it came to experiences in the Consultancy sector/private sector but he has not any meaningful experience in the Somali murky, conspiratorial, Clan based politics and in part crime based.. ( The last casualty of this criminality instigated by some members who are themselves Drug- Barons and bosses to organized crimes is MR."Faisal" an MP who dared to challenge them and was spokesman for the Shirdoon side during the Dispute between the president and PM Shirdoon).Maybe this will be an advantage if he can restrain in joining any group of the two main groups of the Clan- based Nationalist and the Clan based Puppet Leaders linked to ETHIOPIA-IGAD allied to Salafist Business Cartels/ Organized Crimes/Damu/Jadid..He can claim that he is technocrat who will follow the Constitution and the Agenda set by the President. Any way I don't see any Change unless he asserts himself and the international community asserts themselves.At the end they are the ones paying AMISOM and for the reestablishment of a Somali viable state in the HORN of Africa.
The main political actors in the Somali context- I mean in the parliament and in general- are the ones I said above and unfortunately the President in this days is full time member of the group I called the Damu Jadid a pro-Salafist side who for Machiavellian reasons of power and finance is allied with the ETHIOPIA-IGAD States. To be fair the group of the Clan based Puppet Leaders/ pro- Salafist members allied to the Salafist Business cartels/Organized Crimes/Drug cartels has the Majority-almost 200 out of 275 members parliamentarians combined group in the parliament- and running the federal administration and security services in Mogadishu. They needed an outsider like Mr Abdiweli the new PM to cover up their own Agenda and manipulate the International Community/Donor Agencies/EU/Arab-Muslim world/UN,US and UK. The rest of the members of the parliament are 75 and at least we can find what I call the Clan based Nationalist number not more of 65 to 70. This group which is in the minority in the parliament( but enjoys the real support of the silent majority of Somali people-citizens and international community except the ETHIOPIA-IGAD GROUP) is the one who sided with the last PM Abdi Farah Shirdoon in the last vote of no confidence in which he was ousted by the combined alliance of the pro-salafist Damu Jadid,Salafist Cartels representative linked parliamentarians and the Clan based Puppet leaders allied to ETHIOPIA-IGAD..
The real powers in the so-called Somali state are the Somali Elites Puppet Leaders which are the majority in the Federal parliament.They have been selected from the Nairobi conference of 2004 by Ethiopia and IGAD countries and been reselected in the last Conference of 2012. They are individuals who are corrupt and immoral for their political beliefs but Loyal to their masters the ETHIOPIAN government and some IGAD countries.The two precess I am mentioning above were both controlled and manipulated by the Ethiopian intelligence and the last one Mr. GABRE a Tigre general who works for IGAD was overseeing all is done in their interest.More to that MR. GABRE is well know in Somali Elite political/Business Salafist circles why he was the Political Commissar czar of The ETHIOPIAN ARMY who occupied the south of Somalia in 2006-2009. That occupation/invasion was sanctioned by the international community in the naive belief the Ethiopians were fighting Al-Shabaab and not trying to colonize SOMALIA. In that way we have in Somalia a parliament which is controlled by Foreign powers and only for a few times has stood for the interest of the Somali people-citizens.But all is not rigid and when some times things become emotional, national and there is real involvement of the Somali citizens as One community the Salafist and Puppet leaders are beaten at their own game like the time of former PM Mr. Formajo and some times in the government of Shirdoon.The other two groups are the Clan based pro-salafist members of parliament which are small but allied with the puppet parliamentarians. The third is the what I call the Clan based Nationalist which as numbers cames second but does not have any political influence unless there is time of crises specially of matters of national importance.
(To be continued)
Everything is Clan based: Salafist Groups,Elite Puppet leaders and Organized Crimes/Drug-Cartels.Part2.
In the Somali murky and conspiratorial politics where ideologies be Islamic or secularist are used and organized with Clan affiliations/loyalty the most prominent is the Salafist Movement which is the most powerful economically and the most influential politically being allied with the Clan based Puppet Elites-Allied to Ethiopia0-IGAD- who control the parliament , security,administration of the Federal government and regional administrations like Puntland and Somaliland.Even there the real power behind the Clan regional Leader who rules the region is the Salafist Business Cartels.
Why the Salafist Movement have acquired this kind of unlimited power and influence? How it started? When they decided to have this strategic partnership with the Ethiopia and IGAD countries when it came to State powers(federal and regional level)? Why partner with Ethiopia and IGAD while having a manipulative relationship at the Federal state and regional level with the US, EU and the international community in general?Why the Salafist Movement was divided in three main groups from the beginning in the late seventies-70": 1-The Islamic Scholars/Preachers/Imaam of Mosques,2- The Salafist Business Cartels linked to organized crimes and Drug-cartels,3-The Jihadist Militant group and other smaller groups like the Al-Islaah, Al-Tabliq- later allied to Al-Shabaab and Al-Tafkiir and many more which were individual ventures to have power and money by Somali individuals.
We have to go back when this movement was started and being a movement banned in Somalia. The religious groups and the Clan based Nationalist were the first to stand against the Siad Barre regime brand of Socialism and Military dictatorship.More to that the religious groups were the first in Somalia to have had their members executed in Public in 1974. It was born in a clandestine way and this made it to have different Agendas within the same brand of Wahabi Salafist Islam.Till today their are secretive and undemocratic in their dealings and never embraced the tenets of Rule of Law.Democratic institutions,transparent and accountable systems in Private matters and Public affairs. Even with the Salafist Business Cartels which operates in public and have investment in all East- Africa,Central Africa and South Africa.Let me take them one by one.The first I mentioned made of Islamic scholars was the most prepared when it came to the knowledge of Islam and its Role in Society but they have their Salafist interpretation which were "contrasting" with the Shafici interpretation of Islam which the Somalis have practices for centuries and centuries.They were divided on how to approach their role in Politics and the firebrand/Radical within them took over the leading role.They started asserting themselves from the 80" in Somalia ,Arab countries,East Africa.Some of them linked/infiltrated with the Clan based opposition groups of the SSDF, SNM, USC who were all based in Socialist Ethiopia of Menghiste allied to Russia and Warsaw pact. From there you can see the manipulative political Agenda of the Ethiopian regime who permitted a Salafist movement to work and oppose Siad Barre regime from inside Marxist Ethiopia.Usually those in the opposition who went to Ethiopia were of three different types: the Salafist, The Clan Based groups,the Opportunist and the Left-wingers who were dreaming that Ethiopia will help them to take power in Somalia. Only the Clan based groups had the real numbers and the support base inside Somalia where they started to operate. The Salafist groups were more successful in participating first in the SNM clan based movement( in 1992 after they came inside Somalia and running what we call the regions of Somaliland today, there were the first executions by stoning of Somali women by a judge appointed by the Ruling Elites of the SNM) and later in the Clan based USC they putted in the Charter of the USC the concept of Political Islam for the first time-it was in 1989.I was in Nairobi,middle of 1989, when some USC members brought to my late father Ali Mohamed Ossoble-newly elected as Chairman of the USC-ROMA-the new Charter document prepared in Mogadishu and Roma,Italy by the Salafsit groups who were financing the USC.When I asked him this new political concept he told me this was prepared by people he never met but was worried.( please read by blog titled "History of the alliance between the Ittixad movement and the Ethiopia-IGAD") .Any way the USC from its inception were made of different groups:(a) that of Rome in Italy which comprised of opposition memebers who were mostly Clan based but secularist, nationalist, old politicians of the 60" with a minority of Salafist financiers from Mogadishu ( the first business cartels individuals) and puppet leaders based in Nairobi allied to Ethiopia,it was led by Ali Mohamed Ossoble assassinated in Rome in 1990.The man supposed to be his successor Mr. Ismail Giumale was also assassinated in Roma after three months.,(2)the USC of Mogadishu which were made mostly of Salafist groups mainly Elite Clans first Business cartels( they were called in Somali "Baqarey" which means owners of whole-sale business") and rich Clan Based Elites who were allied strangely with Ethiopia and the Italians government of that time,It was led by Ali Mahdi and other business individuals,.(3) The USC based of Ethiopia-( which had strong links with the Salafist movement) which were the more famous and led by General Aidid- which were the last to came in action and totally supported by the Mensghiste regime and from 1990 by the Meles regime of Ethiopia.We can say with certainty there was a continuity in the policy of Ethiopia in supporting the opposition groups and have executed the "Grand Plan" to destroy SOMALIA and subdivide it in Clan based regional/sovereign entities under the hegemony of ETHIOPIA and later IGAD.From the origins we also can see the interplay and sometime alliances of the Ethiopian regimes with Somali salafist groups who were part and parcel of the opposition movement.
( to be continued)
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