The words of Mr. Nicholas Kay- UN representative for Somalia and Head of the United Mission for Somalia- after the Election of MR.Dr. Abdiweli M.Ali Gaas as new Elect- president of the Regional state of Puntland were the best to illustrate the mood, anxiety and relief of the members of the Puntland Parliament, politicians representing Clan communities,Clan community Elders and in general the population at large of the entire region and of Somalis of the Somali Republic in general wherever they live or were at that particular moment. Mr. Kay post election remarks included the words like “You will sleep well tonight……. Now you are part of the process to develop Somalia etc”. This is my shortening of quotes of the entire speech. There was relief, hope for a well done election in which all the political and social forces including the Salafist Business cartels- all Clan based- of the regions of Puntland were involved and was sometime on the brink to collapse and in part civil war was averted after the annulment of the direct elections prepared and organized by the incumbent President MR. Abirahman Mohamed “Farole” of July 2013. There was at that time a popular uprising of the cities of Qardho,Bosaso and Galkayo who represented the major Clans and the Kaleidoscope of Salafist groups and Sunna-waljamaca,Clan nationalist,Organized crimes groups etc..
This regional Election was watched carefully by all Somalis and specially by the Leadership of Somaliland regions, the Federal government in Mogadishu, the so-called Khatuma regional state and the regional powers like ETHIOPIA and IGAD countries, foreign powers like CHINA, IRAN, ITALY, AUSTRALIA, FRANCE and the big OIL & GAS Companies of this world and the minnows companies in OIL like Africa OIL Co. with which “Mr.Farole” the incumbent made illegal concessional Rights deals. And also Big US companies who owns the OIL and GAS concessional rights of the regions from the 60” and have for the last time been renewed by the Siad Barre government in 1989. Also there were the keen interests of the US,EU the UK and the Arab/Muslim world like Saudi Arabia,Qatar and Turkey.The UN ,IGAD-AU and the international community were all represented at the Election venue. These were all the Regional and Global actors involved indirectly in this contest. But the domestic Actors were those who were taking and playing a political game that was sometimes so brutal, emotional that all the tricks of the Somali Politics were used.
Let me make a short timeline of the basic events of the existence of the state of PUNTLAND regions of Somalia. In that way we can understand better the so-called social and political forces at play in this last political contest which are in general the real Power-Brokers in those regions.
Puntland was established in 1998 by former members of the SSDF an opposition Clan-based (like all the Somali opposition Clan based political movements sponsored by Ethiopia like SNM, USC and SPM) movement sponsored/ based in Ethiopia between 1979-1986. Mr. Abdulllahi Yusuf one of the founders of the movement and Chairman was arrested by the Ethiopians around 1984-1986 times and was released from jail in Ethiopia in 1991. He restarted the Political Clan based movement in 1991 in the Puntland regions and he self-proclaimed himself as Leader with the acknowledgement/ support of the Elders of the regions . In 1992 he fought a Salafist insurgency in the one of the first Al-Ittixad Militias-(there was a compromise agreement between the SSDF and the Salafist who were supported by some local Clan Leaders to administer the PORT of Bosaso ) who took over the Port of Bosaso and defeated them in a bloody battle which was one of the first civil wars between Somalis with a Religious divide( the others were in middle Juba ,Lower Shabelle regions between the USC of Gen. Aided and other Salafist in as early as 1991 but later Aidid will revert to his strategic alliance with the Salafist militants to fight the UN/US mission in Somalia). This was one of the main phases of the political Struggle for power between the Salafist and the so-called Clan Nationalist-Ahlu-Sunna (Sufi Islam groups) of the Regions State of PUNTLAND. In that battle the members of the Salafist Militia were from all regions of Puntland and other parts of Somalia and they were led by the man who later will become their National leader with the ISLAMIC COURTS UNION in 2006.
Mr. Abdullahi Yusuf became president of the Somali Republic with the first transitional Charter which envisioned the Federal System in 2004 in Nairobi, Kenya with the support of ETHIOPIA and IGAD countries but recognized by the UN and international community. In Puntland the new Leader was Mr. General Cadde Musse who was elected in 2005 by MPs selected by Elders . For the first time the Salafist groups and Organized crimes who were controlling the Trade/Hawilad-remittances/Telecom / education /Health and had surplus cash, came back in the scene by financing the “ the criminal menace” of the “Piracy” based in that regions in which almost 300 to 400 millions of US dollars was paid as Ransom between 2005 and 2011 by the Owners of hijacked ships( UN report 2013). Part of that money( its an open secret) in 2009 will be part of the finances given to Mr. Farole to be elected as the next President of Puntland by the Organized crimes groups and the Salafist Business Cartels. But there was also another factor which came into play in Puntland politics at that time which will bring “into the open” the game –Plan of Ethiopia- to Subdivide the Somalis of the Somali Republic in territorial Clan-Enclaves which will call themselves “sovereign” Regional States”. There was already the self-proclaimed- secessionist Agenda of the Ruling SNM Elites in the regions of Somaliland but in the North east of Puntland that was a novelty.
What brought in that new factor was the OIL and GAS concessions to Petroleum Companies for the drilling of OIL in the Dharoor Valley( later Mr. Farole also will include the Nugal Valley where Conoco Philips had rights from 1989) by Mr. Cadde Musse. To Drill for the Oil the regional state of PUNTLAD will require being a “Sovereign State” under INTERNATIONAL LAW and therefore will renegade even on the “transitional Charter” of the new Somali Federal government of 2004. That is what MR. Farole will try by making a new Constitution for Puntland and “bringing in the new concept of a Confederate Somalia” in which all regional states are “sovereign” in 2010 after just one year after his election but without any legal backing and legal adoption by the federal government or any acceptance by all Somali Clan-communities-people-citizens of the Somali Republic by a Referendum . The subsequent political ‘matching” between him and the so-called leaders of the federal government in Mogadishu was all a charade to give Mr. Farole “ the legal precedent’ and reasons to start drilling for OIL in contravention of all Somali Laws and International Laws which did not recognize a new Somali state called Puntland in the North east regions of the Somali Republic.
The recent history is Mr. Farole failed with his ambitions to divide the Somalis because in the meantime in 2012 there was a new constitution in which the Somali Clan Community Elders agreed to have a federal system of governance after it was pushed under their throats by the UN and the So- called international community under the influence of ETHIOPIA and IGAD countries. Till today we don’t know what means a federal system in a clear way in the constitution.
The Election of MR. Abdiweli M.Ali Gaas as president of the regional state of Puntland will bring to the fore all the problems of the so- called Somali Federal State and the internal dynamics of the power struggle of domestic actors within Somalia in general and in particular the regions of Puntland.
When I said the domestic actors I mean the Clan Based groups in all of Somalia be them Salafist Business Cartels ,Ahlu-Sunna waljameca, Puppet Elite leaders politicians allied to Ethiopia-IGAD, Clan -Nationalist Elite-Leaders Elders and politicians , Organized crimes groups in Business which were part and parcel of the last election in Puntland and the main actors in all of Somali Republic including the regions of Somaliland.The only group which was not influential in the Election were the Jihadist groups of Al-Shabaab but which have an ideological connections with some of the Salafist Cartels and a business connections with the Organized crimes groups in Business and Piracy in Puntland regions.It was printed in some internet sites and rumored by political pundits that one of the main contenders was an ex-fighter of the Salafist Movement of 1992 in Puntland and now he was a well know- respectable businessman and there was also another Salafist businessman, All in all the contenders were eleven(11) and the three main contenders who succeeded to reach the second round were Mr. Dr. Abdiweli M.Ali Gaas who represented the Clan based Ahlu-Sunna-Waljameeca,Clan nationalist Elites but he is in good relationship with the Ethiopia-IGAD countries.Mr. Abdirahman "Farole" who represented the interests of the Elite Puppet leaders allied to Ethiopia-IGAD, Salafist business cartels who were allied with Ethiopia who wonted the economic and political the Status Quo and Organized crimes groups.The other third group was Clan based Salafist Business cartels who for the first time had their own candidate openly and were proposing their Own Agenda.They were represented by Mr. Ali Hagi Warsame. In the last round for "political reasons" he gave Mr. Abdiweli the Chance to win. by adding his votes to Dr.Abdiweli..Did Abdiweli made horse trading politically? Did the Salafist Business cartels group divided themselves in different groups with different agendas? We will wait for sometime to know the real game-plan.
What next for Abdiweli in Puntland? The main Challenges for his administration and also for Somalia is what Type of Federalism we need? A question which has never been answered at national level and at regional level in a democratic manner. How to solve the Clan-communities of Buhodle,Las-Canod and Taleh self-proclamation that they are part of a regional government called Khatuma state?How to solve the intricate web of dominance of the economy by a group of Salafist which would not like a national central-federal government like the puppet leaders allied to Ethiopia? How to fight the Jihadist groups in the midst of the regions of Puntland like Mr. "Atom" Al-Shabaab linked group which is stationed at Galgalo mountains and can attack the main town of Bosaso when they like? How to stop the extra-judicial killings organized by the Ethiopian Intelligence but executed by Puntland forces and bring justice to the people-citizens of Galkayo and Bosaso? How to reorganize the quasi-criminal intelligence services trained by the Ethiopian intelligence under the control of Ethiopian intelligence officers based in Garowe? How to have a professional security services not sub-clan based who are part of the federal national Army of Somalia?
There are other main issues like the youth unemployment, reorganization of the civil servants and mostly importantly a new the political and cultural narrative which stands for the national interests of the all Somali people-citizens.Dr. Abdiweli must link with the Clan nationalist elites of all of Somalia to sell his own vision of a federal Somalia and not be partisan like Mr. Farole who liked to represent only some Clans within the large Somali clans. In that way he stood for a Clan-Based vision of Confederate Somalia in which just like in the Jubba regions some Clans were more "equal than others"A Confederate system in which Somalis are divided in Clan enclaves and have borders between them.Where he will stand Dr. Abdiweli? He will stand for Somali Nation-Hood and STATE-HOOD in a United State but with a devolved Federal system or as propagated by the "Somali puppet Leaders" he will be for the subdivision of Somalia in a new Confederate Somalia under the Hegemony of Ethiopia and IGAD countries? Wait and see.
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