The Criminal motives Behind the Car-Bombing of Ahmed Madobe in Kismayo,Somalia.

If you follow  with keen interest the Murky Somali Politics-an interconnections of Jihadist groups  , Business cartels/Organized crimes/Drug-cartels  and Ethiopian intelligence manipulation,plots- you will be puzzled even at the latest assassination attempt on the convoy of Mr. Ahmed Madobe by a suicide car- bomb in the middle of Kismayo town last Thursday Sept 12 /2013  . On 27 August 2013 , before the attempt, there has been  a political deal in Addis-Ababa in which ,strangely the Ethiopian government is guarantor, and  Mr. Ahmed Madobe was recognized by the Somali federal government  as Leader and chairman ( of the executive,legislative and judiciary,Security) of the Jubba administration made of lower Jubba,middle Jubba and Gedo regions. The Somali government got in exchange to be the "sole representative of Somali sovereignty and Nation-State".It was a biased deal which has not taken into account the will of the people of the regions and was not  even made in good faith by the Ethiopians which were directing the whole saga.Also  they were diplomatically told that the Somali government will never accept Subdivision and they have to change their Plans by the international community.Why you would ask? The main reason being that the Ethiopians-Tigre Elites and some of the  Somali-Kenyan establishment,Kenyan Business tycoons  were allied with some groups who were representing Big Oil companies  like Statoil of Norway represented by a former PM and Total oil which was represented by a former Minister of defence,Clan Communities  in this political kaleidoscope of this regions  and  were advocating for an Independent and Sovereign Somali regional state in Jubba regions in a Confederate Somali State.This  new  deal makes Jubba regions Part and Parcel of Somalia but gives exorbitant powers to Mr. Madobe as Leader.This was not good for this groups and they had their own game plans which were are now being  executed by the Ethiopian Intelligence using Al-Shabaab in this car-bombing. First they have putted  in the deal this exorbitant powers of the Leader must not be changed in following negotiations and it must be intact. Secondly they wont " a political and security crisis" in which Mr. Ahmed Madobe will accept their own game- plan and will not accept any negotiation to bring in more clans -communities in the administration  and security services. That is the reason the car- bomb by Al-shabaab was organized by the Ethiopian Intelligence community. My theory has always been that the Ethiopians had contacts within the Al-Shabaab of Ahmed Godane and the Salafist Business cartels which are linked with Al-Shabaab.  Ahnmed Madobe was transported from the airport in a armoured vehicle made of steel  by Amisom while his staff and others travelled in his own car-convoy.The man-Ahmed Madob- will be made to believe in this  pre-planned operation  and accept all the suggestions,game plans  of the Ethiopian intelligence and the Hawks in the Somali clans community,representatives of Oil companies who are against any agreement unless its the recognition of a new sovereign state in South of Somalia.The other motivation  at work its the Ethiopians  would like as stated in the Kampala communique only the Amisom African armies to be stationed in Kismayo without the Re-hatting to UN blue helmets. Therefore with this bombing any UN intervention/deployment  would be scared. More to that at Art. 33 of the Kampala Communique its approved that Amisom and" the Chiefs of Staff of Ethiopia" within the framework of "Amisom Military operations.........to work out the modalities and development of an Amisom Multinational force to deployed to Kismayo". We can see  Ethiopians are back in the security issues and my opinion is they are  against any Multinational force be it African or UN multinational force.Their game plan is to be involved directly in the security issues of the Jubba regions now with  a UN mandate to make legitimate their own security game-plans.With this car-bombing they are telling the world that the place is so dangerous that  they are the Only state who can afford and capable to fight against this dangerous extremism group of Al-Shabaab. All  lies made to confuse and scare the Intentional community and even the Somali government which they hold hostage thanks to IGAD Organization and Amisom Armies. From the timing of the Operation the  car-bomb,the detailed execution,the knowledge of the arrival of Ahmed Madobe,the exact car  to bomb all makes this operation being -pre-planned by the Ethiopians but executed by Al-Shabaab.If you ask me how its possible this Unholy alliance ? First I will direct you to read some of my blogs like " History of the alliance between the Somali Al-Ittixad movement and the Ethiopians" going back to the 80". and other more recent in which I spoke in detail about the strategic  importance for Ethiopia and its backers -China,France, Iran,Italy- of the Jubba regions. The other Scenario behind this car- bombing , is one in which the Salafist business cartels/Drug-Cartels who were using the port of Kismayo together with Al-Shabaab have seen endangered their interests of exporting charcoal to the  Arab Gulf states in which al-Shabaab and this Salafist cartels were making enormous profits in tandem with the Ras-Kamboni Militia of Ahmed Madobe(  Please read last UN report  on Somalia) and importing Heroin from Afghanistan and Pakistan in which they  were re-exporting using Somali Drug-cartels active in Somalia  to Europa,US via the great Horn of Africa countries. This two criminal activities are in danger to be stopped if the agreement/ deal reached in Addis-Ababa came into effect after six months and the Somali government stops the charcoal export and brings its owns Staff and security to the airport and  Kismayo port..Al-Shabaab and the Salafist Business Cartels/Dug-cartels  will loose enormous amounts of millions of Dollars therefore its most likely they have decided to have this car-bombing to scare any involvement which will change the Status Quo. The Third option is Al-Shabaab itself  has seen a window of opportunity in the opposition of this agreement by the majority of clan-communities of the regions and with this car bombing show them their power and capacity  and tell them  that the only way they can get the resources of the regions is to ally themselves with AL-Shabaab-Al-Qaeda. All this options- scenarios are interlinked and have as a base the main alliance of the Salafist Business cartels/Organized crimes groups  and "The Ethiopian intelligence". Al-Shabaab one time is "tool" other time protagonist but never its missing its connections with the Salafist groups/Organized crimes of all over Somalia.Wait and see.