Who owns Somalia?Al-shabaab or Ethiopia-IGAD?Not Somali people-citizens.

Fight against al Shabaab instructive model for future: U.S. general

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(Reuters) - The African Union war against al Shabaab in Somalia this past year has left the Islamist group "largely in a survival mode" and is instructive for confronting the......

 

The Americans are as usual naive on Somali issues.The African Union or Amisom did not drive out Al-Shabaab without a big fight.My humble opinion is The Wahhabi-salfist of Somalia has divided themselves in different groups and the two main
groups are:Al-Shabaab the most radical which have foreign fighters and its policies are "partly" made by Al-Qaida.The other group is Al-ittixad business cartels made up of Business people,Organized crimes groups,puppet leaders all in this time allied with Ethiopia-IGAD,China,Russia,Iran and some western countries.From the 80" this two groups have a parallel lives with the Business cartels and puppet leaders leading from 1991 till 2006.From 2006 the more radical group of Al-shabaab emerged from the ashes of Al-Ittixad political movement and I.C.U and started having its leadership Role asserted with the Union of Islamic Courts. .From 2009 the Al-Ittixad business cartels/Puppet leaders made a strong alliance with E

thiopia-IGAD-China-Iran-Russia and started the strategy of weakening economically Al-shabaab to whom they where the main financiers domestically..Al-ittixad business cartels now was totally controlling the economy of all the Somali Republic and for them was strategically more convenient being allied to states who approved their long term interest to dominate the Somali economic infrastructure and indirectly the political system. There were now States ready to ally themselves with al-Ittixad business cartels,Puppet Leaders/Warlords-.Drug barons/Organized crimes to get in exchange the Somali national resources by subdividing Somalia in new Republics and support this groups. You can see this policy in the last U.N security council debate on the Somali Charcoal issues. States Like Russia and China stood for the project of Ethiopia-IGAD to waive the ban on the selling of charcoal.But I suspect things are not all clear cut and Al-Shabaab has started using the nationalist card plus the clan/regional cards to tell the local Ittixad Business cartels that they role will be usurped if the" Foreign Armies" succeed and bring new groups to control their regional economies and Foreign countries taking over their territory.The other factor is the Somalis are clan based society and sufi-Islam has been their main affiliation in Islam and the radical policies of Al-Shabaab have aliened them.But still those Clans who see their interest is better served with Al_shabaab are still part of it and fighting for it.But this fight is not Ideological but political by nature with also business interest connotations.
The African armies will never succeed in defeating Al-shabaab because their are part of the problem and would like with al-ittixad Business cartels to have a vassal-mini-clan-enclaves states under the hegemony of Ethiopia-IGAD and China.Wait and see.

 

Written on 5/ December 2012.