It’s SOMALIA Federal Government on the BRINK of IMPLOSION? Part 1.Wait and see.



        If we read Somali media in these days it seems all Déjà vu.  After 25 Octobert 2014  the day the reshuffle was annonced the  usual infighting between President and PM of the Somali Federal government started  going at full speed with all the recrimination, accusations on the FM radios and specially the BBcsomali.com and the VoaSomali .com,Somali websites etc. But to all accounts things are very different from past infighting's although the form is the same. Now the international community looks more united , involved - speaking openly-specially the UN, EU on the issues at stake of the reshuffle and supporting the PM reshuffle , while the Ethiopian government and IGAD countries  are siding with the President. The US is silent but every body assuming  they are   siding with the International community and the UN. Also silent are Turkey and Qatar which  I suspect are-mistakenly- siding with the President but U.A.E and Saudi Arabia I do not think they  will ever accept a Somalia controlled by ETHIOPIA and a bunch of Salafist Business Cartels allied to Organized crimes. The main  issue is the reshuffle of some  ministries made by the Somali PM Abdiweli Sheik Ahmed  and the one specially on  the now "infamous" Minister for  Justice and Constitutional Affairs.This Minister Mr. Abdulkadir Farah  is of a unique  "specimen" in the Somali political kaleidoscope.He is a well know  as a so- called Salafist-secretary general of the Salafist party  so-called Damu Jadid (New Blood) and in the same time "very Close" ally of the Tigre regime of Ethiopia. This party unofficially is the one who fundraised and collected money from Kuwait foundations ( to whom was working at least for the last 15 years before he became politician and  Minister in 2012),Qatar organizations, who where used to finance the Election of President Hassan Sheik in 2012. Also he  is the main point man of the sub colonization of the Somali Republic, the subdivision of the country in Clan-Enclaves( he was behind and signed the so- called "Addis-Ababa Agreement" for the Jubba regions which is a total failure and rejected by the Clan- communities of that region ) based on sectarian system and more importantly of the change of our legal system in a subtle way-.read my post " The Rule of Law or Rule of Militant Salafist ". While I was writing this article on Friday 07/ November it came in the news that the a Motion of no-confidence for the PM will be made on November 08 2014. Before I give my take on the main issues of this  controversy and infighting let me make a short timeline of past events between PM and Presidents and the usual power struggles and manipulation of ETHIOPIA in the Somali so- called political system.. From 2000 when the IGAD group run and used by ETHIOPIA for the sub colonization of SOMALIA  started being  the main architect in the institution Building of Somali State this infighting was part of the Somali political “system”. It was mostly engineered by the Tigre Regime of ETHIOPIA and the Somali Local  political-economic actors like  the Salafist Movement represented by the Salafist Business cartels, their Close allies the Somali Organized Crimes groups- part of the Business community and Elite politicians- and the Somali Elite Clan puppet Leaders who usually defend, promote the interest of ETHIOPIA and IGAD countries( to know more read my post called " For the New PM: lessons from a recent past" of December 2013.). We have witnessed the infighting between President Abdullahi Yusuf and his two PMs in between 2004-2009. We have also seen the infighting between President Sheik Sharif Ahmed and his two PMs like Omar Abdirashid Sharmarke  and Mohamed Abdullahi  “Farmajo”. Every time one prime Minister was ousted and replaced by another. As the pundits at BBCSomali.com said it was an average of one PM per year from 2000 till today.President Hassan which everybody expected to be different –being an academic with a long experience and connections with the West- but looks he is worse or the same pasta of all the other past Presidents. He is ousting his second PM, the first Shirdoon was ousted when he tried to replace this same Minister Mr. Farah Abdulkadir. Here I am not accusing past and present presidents to be bad or good but everyone was conditioned and pressurized by the local interest  groups- mainly the Salafist Business Cartels and the Elite Clan puppet leaders  to whom they were linked as Leaders and individual politician.  President Abdikassim was an Al-Islah-moderate Islamist  group member,former Minister in Siad Barre regime who was disliked by ETHIOPIA by being also a Nationalist who  disliked ETHIOPIA and IGAD countries monopoly in Somali National Politics. His PM was a pro- West academic Mr. Ali Khalif  Galayr who also disliked the Ethiopian interference and control. .The others who followed were just mere puppet Leaders there for opportunistic reasons.President Abdikassim  came there by default.It was the only time the Ethiopians were outsmarted in the making of Puppet Leaders for Somalia.All other conferences and so- called elections were controlled and manipulated by ETHIOPIA-IGAD.  At the Carta conference the IGAD group  mainly Ethiopia was for the other candidate Mr. Abdullahi Addow  in the Presidential  race but the conference Clan  MPs-delegates  elected Abdikassim supported by the Somali Salafist Business Cartels  who were financing the conference, facilitated  its outcome together with the Djibouti government.The Clans Blood Lineage are all the time used  to be the main system to choose the President and PM.After it was the  Magbati, Nairobi conference of 2004  in which the Clan based MPs elected Abdullahi Yusuf (2004-2009)  a Colonel who was one of the founding members of the Clan based opposition groups the S.S.D.F who later in 2008 will become first  President of the second Clan- Enclave administration of Puntland. in 2008. He  believed  that with military force and the assistance  of the Ethiopian-Tigre  Armada which will be permitted to invade Somalia, Somalis can be ruled  with Iron fist and the Salafist movement- the islamic Courts Union and Al-Shabaab - subdued or eliminated.. But unfortunately his own PM  Mr. Prof. Ali Mohamed Gedi who was there thanks to Meles Zenawi regime  was against him from day one.Secondly he came to realize that his best friends the Tigre Armada of Ethiopia   were there to recolonize Somalia and not to fight Al-Shabaab and the Islamic Courts Union.His second PM has more sympathy  to ETHIOPIA Agenda  and they did not like each other because he had Presidential ambitions.

The Time of President Sheik Sharif Ahmed.

        President abdullahi Yusuf was changed before his time was up.The Tigre regime of ETHIOPIA has its political  game plans.They made a political deal in 2009 arranged by the Somali Salafist Business cartels/Organized crimes ( read my post of july 2014"Endemic Corruption? Somali Republic is base to Organized crimes/Drug Trafficking groups from at least last 23 years.") with some members of the now disbanded Islamic Courts Union and some of the so- called members of the  Parliament who used to be so- called "rebels" and who were relocated in Asmara.Eritrea. The deal with Ethiopia was made by Sheik Sharif Ahmed -former number 2 of the Islamic courts Union- who will became President in pre- arranged presidential- Clans MPs Election in Djibouti,Djibouti Republic  and Mr. Sharif Hassan- best friend of ETHIOPIA and IRAN- who will became the next Speaker of Parliament. This regime will be from 2009- 2012.

(to be continued)
        

        

#SOMALIA: CLAN-ENCLAVES SECTARIANISM: The NEW Political Syst...

#SOMALIA: CLAN-ENCLAVES SECTARIANISM: The NEW Political Syst...: T his new post is the continuation of my last article entitled " WHO Runs he Show in Somalia?.The Salafist movement......"? Here ...

CLAN-ENCLAVES SECTARIANISM: The NEW Political System For Somali Federal Republic Part 1.

This new post is the continuation of my last article entitled " WHO Runs he Show in Somalia?.The Salafist movement......"? Here I will go forward  and write shortly on other issues like the Baidowa demonstrations and the underling events, the new political thinking  of what I call the "Clan Enclaves Sectarianism" Concept which is also the basis of this new  Institutions Building.like the "pseudo self-Determination Rights". The Bakara market closure as a protest against  new  government Taxes by the Salafist Business Cartels( Read my post the Somali Business people)..The new type of so- called legal" "Hybrid"   system seen in the Military courts of Puntland, Federal government , Kismayo-Lower Juba- in which The Sura' of the Holy Qura'n and the Penal code are mixed( read my post "Rule of the Law or Rule of Militant Salafist" of February 2013)..The Invasion of the Clan Militia of Somaliland regional State at the inauguration day of Ali Khalif Galeir as President of the New  regional state of Khatumo and other like the new Disarmament policy of Somali federal government of disarming the Private militia Warlords.Organized crimes,Drug traffickers and  so- called security Companies( which have been stopped  for the time being.). . I will give numbers to the "events" as continuations and links to the  past events I have taken up::

          (4)The important event I would like to mention here is the demonstration in Baidowa- where one person was killed and others injured- against the support of Somali government and UNSOM/IGAD of the new formation of Clan -Enclaves by siding with the group of the three(3) regions While I was writing  this article Mr. Nick Kay went to Baidowa and met with the speaker of the Parliament Mr. Jawari to facilitate reconciliation between the two groups and the installment of an administration..( Read my post the " The Pseudo-Self-Determination Rights of Clans-People(s) Enclaves engineered by ETHIOPIA-IGAD countries of July 2014"). Both groups are supported by the Tigre regime of ETHIOPIA and the Bay/Bakol regions have Ethiopian Army as AU/Amisom contingent.One group is led by Mr.Sharif Hassan former speaker of Somali federal parliament- best friend of IRAN-CHINA-ETHIOPIA-who is the political Baron  of that Clan Community-Blood Lineage group-of the so-called three (3) regional states.Actually his half brother is the self declared president of that regional state..The other group is led by Mr. Madobe Nunow another former speaker who is allied to ETHIOPIA-IGAD countries.
          The main issues here are two how big is the Clan-Enclaves Blood lineage regions and who will be the "Political Baron" of he so-called regional state( only one can be the main Baron) and how to deal with the region which  the majority  of the inhabitants are not same Clan-Blood Lineage like the Lower Shabelle region.The Plan by ETHIOPIA-IGAD later adopted by Somali government  and UNSOM, and so-called international community is to have the regions of Bay,Bakol and Lower Shabelle   as one regional state unit called the "South West State". There were controversy within this two groups headed by the two former speakers about the real number of regions  -Three or Six regions- which this so- called South West regional state will be made .Looks now they have settled on the Three regions( all planned and manipulated by ETHIOPIA-IGAD countries).There is a conference in this time which is aiming to solve this problems. This Clan Enclaves regional States are all based on two Political  Principles-including the existent ones like Puntland, Somaliland, Galmudug- that  one Clan Blood Lineage is the main Ruler of the Regional State and  the model is a  Sectarian type of Clan Power Supremacy which is  the other Principle.
( to be continued)

Part 2: Why I Use the Word Clan Enclaves Sectarianism?

I use the word Clan- Enclaves sectarianism  which in this Somali regional/ national contest has a big Meaning almost like an ideology to Rule the CLANS and subdivide them by the Somali Elite Puppet Leaders.
First I write  about what the Wikipedia Encyclopedia says.: Sectarianism:  according to one definition,is Bigotry,Discrimination or Hatred arising from attaching importance to perceived Differences between  Subdivision within a Group, such as between different Denominations of a religion,Class,Regional or factions of a Political Movement..
My owns definition of  the Clan-Sectarianism has cultural meaning,economic ownership of Land,mineral resources, like OIL and GAS, and all economic activities of that Region State.
My cultural sectarian meaning of a Clan is: a group which sees themselves different from others as  history of Clans,Cultural poetry,,Blood lineage-ancestry,pastoral land and the new Territorial land,water wells and an "overwhelming Rights" on the land in which they live which is far different and "superior" from those Rights of the general citizen-people who can came to live,inhabit in the so- called region state.
The "political" meaning of the Clan Enclaves sectarianism is based on the principle " of  the would  be "Political supremacy"  of the main Clan or Sub-clan ,the appropriation of resources ,appointments, in the political spheres of Institutions, security institutions like military,Intelligence and Police of the regional state, sub regions etc".

The socio- economic  meaning of "Clan Enclaves Sectarianism" is based on   the principle," that our Clan or Sub-Clan has absolute ownership,supreme right on the exploitation,ownership of the local- regional resources, be agricultural land,mineral resources like OIL and GAS,jobs, state and local appointment's, fishing  rights etc. . All  this so- called rights are based on Clan Blood Lineage Rule of the Clan but none is based on real legal norms. of the Somali Republic.
Which means the Salafist Business Cartels/Organized Crimes groups of that region or sub regions organized as Clans at the village level ,Town, or Clan regional group will  Control,Monopolize the resources of that region be it Trade or any other activity like Telecom,Education, Health,Hawilad or money transfer etc.
In other words this "Clan-Enclaves Sectarianism" as a Model to our administrative Institutions of Regions will  be codified  and implemented as   the political Model in all Somali Republic regions by the Elite Clan -Puppet Leaders and the Monopolistic Salafist Business Cartels/Organized Crimes groups.
It already  controls  the economies  and the  Political spheres  in Mogadishu-Benadir Regions,Puntland State Region, Somaliland State region, and partially in Lower Jubba-Kismayo city port, and Gerdo region.In all this regions everything is organized and based on the  Clan concept of Clan Blood Lineage as social structures and Administrative/Political structures. And the Salafist Business Cartels of those Clans in the regions control the economies be it legal or illegal.( read my post called "Endemic Corruption? Somali Republic base to Organized Crimes/Drug Traffickers for at least the last 23 years.")..
This clan Enclaves sectarianism  is not even just between the Clans or sub Clans of the regions or sub regions.Some will be rulers and others ruled within those Clans or sub-Clans of the same Blood Clan lineage.Those Clans who stand, who are promoters  of the policies of ETHIOPIA-IGAD will be the Rulers and will take the biggest Share in  political appointments,military.police, and control of the economy by the Salafist cartels of that same ruling Clans or sub Clans..
In this way the Elite-Clan puppet Leaders will use this strive and subdivision to manipulate,control and subdivide the Somali people-citizens of the Somali Republic  for the sub-colonization of the Ethiopia-IGAD countries and the Salafist  Movement of Somalia..


#SOMALIA: CLAN-ENCLAVES SECTARIANISM: The New Political Syst...

#SOMALIA: CLAN-ENCLAVES SECTARIANISM: The New Political Syst...: This new post is the continuation of my last article entitled " WHO Runs he Show in Somalia?.The Salafist movement......"? Here I...

CLAN-ENCLAVES SECTARIANISM: The New Political System for Somali Federal Republic.Part 1.

This new post is the continuation of my last article entitled " WHO Runs he Show in Somalia?.The Salafist movement......"? Here I will go forward  and write shortly on other issues like the Baidowa demonstrations and the underling events, the new political thinking  of what I call the "Clan Enclaves Sectarianism" Concept which is also the basis of this new  Institutions Building.like the "pseudo self-Determination Rights". The Bakara market closure as a protest against  new  government Taxes by the Salafist Business Cartels( Read my post the Somali Business people)..The new type of so- called legal" "Hybrid"   system seen in the Military courts of Puntland, Federal government , Kismayo-Lower Juba- in which The Sura' of the Holy Qura'n and the Penal code are mixed( read my post "Rule of the Law or Rule of Militant Salafist" of February 2013)..The Invasion of the Clan Militia of Somaliland regional State at the inauguration day of Ali Khalif Galeir as President of the New  regional state of Khatumo and other like the new Disarmament policy of Somali federal government of disarming the Private militia Warlords.Organized crimes,Drug traffickers and  so- called security Companies( which have been stopped  for the time being.). . I will give numbers to the "events" as continuations and links to the  past events I have taken up::

          (4)The important event I would like to mention here is the demonstration in Baidowa- where one person was killed and others injured- against the support of Somali government and UNSOM/IGAD of the new formation of Clan -Enclaves by siding with the group of the three(3) regions While I was writing  this article Mr. Nick Kay went to Baidowa and met with the speaker of the Parliament Mr. Jawari to facilitate reconciliation between the two groups and the installment of an administration..( Read my post the " The Pseudo-Self-Determination Rights of Clans-People(s) Enclaves engineered by ETHIOPIA-IGAD countries of July 2014"). Both groups are supported by the Tigre regime of ETHIOPIA and the Bay/Bakol regions have Ethiopian Army as AU/Amisom contingent.One group is led by Mr.Sharif Hassan former speaker of Somali federal parliament- best friend of IRAN-CHINA-ETHIOPIA-who is the political Baron  of that Clan Community-Blood Lineage group-of the so-called three (3) regional states.Actually his half brother is the self declared president of that regional state..The other group is led by Mr. Madobe Nunow another former speaker who is allied to ETHIOPIA-IGAD countries.
          The main issues here are two how big is the Clan-Enclaves Blood lineage regions and who will be the "Political Baron" of he so-called regional state( only one can be the main Baron) and how to deal with the region which  the majority  of the inhabitants are not same Clan-Blood Lineage like the Lower Shabelle region.The Plan by ETHIOPIA-IGAD later adopted by Somali government  and UNSOM, and so-called international community is to have the regions of Bay,Bakol and Lower Shabelle   as one regional state unit called the "South West State". There were controversy within this two groups headed by the two former speakers about the real number of regions  -Three or Six regions- which this so- called South West regional state will be made .Looks now they have settled on the Three regions( all planned and manipulated by ETHIOPIA-IGAD countries).There is a conference in this time which is aiming to solve this problems. This Clan Enclaves regional States are all based on two Political  Principles-including the existent ones like Puntland, Somaliland, Galmudug- that  one Clan Blood Lineage is the main Ruler of the Regional State and  the model is a  Sectarian type of Clan Power Supremacy which is  the other Principle.
( to be continued)

#Somalia: Who Runs the Show in SOMALIA?The Salafist Movement...

#Somalia: Who Runs the Show in SOMALIA?The Salafist Movement...:         To understand Somali issues we must think in a "controversial way" and "Manipulative way of doing POLITICS" tak...

Who Runs the Show in SOMALIA?The Salafist Movement,Elite Clan Leaders? ETHIOPIA-IGAD? UN or Somali People-Citizens? Part.1Wait and see..

        To understand Somali issues we must think in a "controversial way" and "Manipulative way of doing POLITICS" taking into account the Long standing "Power Struggle" between different Somali   social-political-economic  forces using Somali CLANS and Sub-Clans. Some are allied to ETHIOPIA-IGAD Countries like the "Elite  Puppet Leaders"  specially with ETHIOPIA and SUDAN and Salafist Business Cartels/Organized crimes/Drug Traffickers ( Read my post "Who are the Business People of Somalia" and. the post called" For the new PM: Lesson from a recent past"). Others are those I call the CLAN Nationalist and Moderate Islamist- who are not in power but supported by the majority of the people-citizens- who accept RULE of Law and democracy.In the Somali political murky system   there is also the Role  the so- called International Community which although united under the banner of the UN, AFRICAN UNION-IGAD, EUROPEAN  UNION-UK ,  and USA , others like Arab Nations-I mean Saudi Arabia , Qatar,Abu-Dhabi,Egypt - and TURKEY are all  still divided on the so- called "SOMALIA  CONFLICT Resolution".The countries members of AU/AMISOM Military contingent  everyone has its Policy/Agenda  toward SOMALIA as a "new colonizing" power except those countries from the West of Africa.
          This short introduction will serve to prepare us on understanding the last "Timeline  of events" in Somalia specially the last three months ( when I say Somalia it encompasses all regions-  from Ras Kamboni to Ras Asser-including Puntland and SOMALILAND regions, Jubba regions etc)  and its repercussions on the "ongoing struggle" for SOMALIA  and its "resources like OIL and GAS".
          (1) Let me start first with the event of the full recognition by the US government of the Somali Federal Government and the consequent visit of President Hassan to USA. With the new "US policy" for Somalia President Hassan met with US Big  OIL Companies who are holding the concessional Rights of about 70% of Somali OIL Basins last re-signed in 1989 by the Siad Barre regime.There is the story "making the rounds" that the Somali Minster for OIL and Mineral resources resigned another time those Rights  for the US Big Companies. This  has great significance for the Sovereignty,Territorial Integrity and Unity of the Somali  Federal Republic. The so- called Elite Clan Leaders of Somaliland regions, Puntland  regions and even Jubba regions were trying all these years to give new  concessional rights for exploration to Chinese,France,Brasil and Italy companies on those old OIL and GAS Basins under the guise of so- called sovereignty of CLAN-ENCLAVES- self declared States- Pseudo Self-Determination Rights.( Read my post OIL and GAS,Mini CLAN ENCLAVES,ETHIOPIA-IGAD HEGEMONY and the post called (" The pseudo Self- Determination Rights of Somali Clan Enclaves" of July 2014).. The US government promised to fully participate in the Institution Building of the Somali Federal State and specially in the rebuilding of the National security services like the Army,Intelligence. and Police. But the most important is the" recognition that Somalia could not be sub-divided in CLAN ENCLAVES based on Sub-Clan Blood Lineage" and . the Sovereignty of Somalia is fully represented by the Somali Federal Republic.My Question is how the US new Policy will be seen by ETHIOPIA and some IGAD countries? They will accept it? What about their local allies the Somali Elite-Clan Puppet Leaders and the Salafist Movement specially the Salafist Business Cartels/Organized crimes groups who control the Economy of all Somalia?
        (2) UN Security Council came to Mogadishu in a Historic visit including all 15 members. They met with the Somali Federal Government including the President,PM and his Cabinet, Somali civil society groups and two of the so-called regional Leaders like the Chairman of Jubba regions  and Galmudug.region.
The UN Security Council fully endorsed what the Somali government calls the "NEW VISION PLAN" (benchmarks) which together with UN and IGAD is to remake all the Somali regions- based on the last 18 made by the Siad Barre regime- as a new Institutions  made in a new Federated regional governments as a devolution of power and more sharing of National Resources between regions.. This new  Plan is made also with the End game of having National and local  Elections, presidential, Parliamentary elections  including a Referendum for the New Constitution,  in all  the Somali Republic by Middle 2016. Did the IGAD countries, AMISOM  and ETHIOPIA, Elite Clan puppet Leaders,Salafist Movement  fully Cooperate with the Re-establishment of the Somali (Federal) Republic? Where all Clans- Communities are Equal in front of the Law,  all people-citizens of a country where the Rule of the Law is supreme and the people- citizens  elect their own Leaders? I do not believe the ETHIOPIA -IGAD group ha given up its Plans to sub-colonize Somalia and subdivide it in CLAN-ENCLAVES.
          (3) Mr. DR.Abdiweli Ali Gaas-President of the so- called regional State of Puntland refused to meet the UN Security Council members when they came to Mogadishu and afterwards left for ETHIOPIA for the usual "consultation".He also had a problem with.the Somali Federal government  because "he sees his region as a  Clan Enclave which is sovereign State and part of a Confederate Somalia".He would like to have Somalia subdivided in "Would be Con-federal Republic where Puntland region is one of the Constituent States".He got the support of the ETHIOPIA-IGAD group in the Region all this years.How the UN,US EU Turkey,Arab Nations who are those  stand for Somali Nationhood and UNITY,Sovereignty will deal with this Clan Enclaves Separatism?.
(to be continued)

#Somalia: WHY Dr abiy AHMED WENT TO MOGADISHU? FOR OIL & GAS...

#Somalia: WHY Dr abiy AHMED WENT TO MOGADISHU? FOR OIL & GAS... : INTRODUCTION:            On 16 June MR. Abiy  Ahmed PM of Ethiopia ...