#Somalia: #HAILEMARIAM RESIGNATION,SALAFIST MOVEMENT AND THE...

#Somalia: #HAILEMARIAM RESIGNATION,SALAFIST MOVEMENT AND THE...:  INTRODUCTION:                 In this post I will try to explain from the point of view of- a Somali from Somali Republic- if it can ...

#Somalia: #HAILEMARIAM RESIGNATION,SALAFIST MOVEMENT AND THE...

#Somalia: #HAILEMARIAM RESIGNATION,SALAFIST MOVEMENT AND THE...:  INTRODUCTION:                 In this post I will try to explain from the point of view of- a Somali from Somali Republic- if it can ...

#HAILEMARIAM RESIGNATION,SALAFIST MOVEMENT AND THE CALIPHATE OF THE HORN.....

 INTRODUCTION:

                In this post I will try to explain from the point of view of- a Somali from Somali Republic- if it can bring change to the Horn the resignation of Ethiopia PM on 15/Feb/2018 .What will it bring to the enduring Somali conflict? Will it bring change or will be business as usual? What about the Puppet Leaders/ ex-Warlords/ Salafist MPs/Organized Crimes/Drug Cartels using  their Clans and sub-clans who are allied to ETHIOPIA? What about the Salafist Business Cartels who had a strategic convergence with the Tigre regime of ETHIOPIA? What about the Salafist Jihadist-of #Alshabaab and #Dacesh- who have planned for Oromos part of their wars to have a Caliphate in Somalia for all Muslims of the Horn? Can the Tigre-TPLF/EPRDF- and new would be rulers regime will came to understand that Somali Republic cannot be sub colonized by ETHIOPIA ? I will give my take on this questions.( While I am writing this post things have not still settled in ETHIOPIA).

        HISTORICAL BACKGROUND of SOMALIA and ETHIOPIA   
        RELATIONSHIPS ( A short view.)
       
         -ETHIOPIA-

                 The Ethiopians/Abyssinian were invited to the Berlin Conference as a Christian Nation in Africa and was included in the Scramble for Africa planned and executed by the Europeans the following years in Africa.In Ethiopian schools that fact is overlooked.They portray themselves as freedom fighters for the African continent and anti colonialist.That is just part of the history and even other Africans states believe.The Abyssinian were given by the EUROPEANS territories in the Horn and expanded to control other National Ethnic groups after World War II which today makes the Federal Republic of ETHIOPIA.The States in Africa are not made of one ETHNIC group- like Somali Republic and other two African states- there fore could be called normal the formation and institutionalization of ETHIOPIA made by the Colonial powers like all the states of AFRICA. During that expansion and formation Ethiopia has become a multi-Ethnic Nation State were Christians, Muslims and Pagans lived side by side. But State Power/Security Institutions/Army and Economy were always in the hands of some ETHNIC groups like Amhara till 1974 and later of the Tigre from 1991.The coming to power of the TPLF/EPRDF of Meles Zenawi from 1991 was the beginning of the subdivision of Somali Republic in Clan Enclaves- like Somali-land, Punt-land, Jubba-land, Galmudug etc  with a power less so called federal government under the hegemony of the Tigre regime of ETHIOPIA and the control of every Somali Clan Enclaves economy by the Salafist Business Cartels. The presidency of #Farmaajo has started to change that state of affairs but we are just at the beginning.

 -SOMALIA-
        
        Somalis in the Horn had their Nation State and homeland in 1960.The two colonies of British Somaliland and Italian Somaliland were united in a National state called Somali Republic on  Jun 26/1960 and  1/July/1960. The Somali Nationalism of 50" 60" 70" was also based on the concept of "Greater Somalia" which included all the territories inhabited by Somalis in the Horn. The concept was enshrined in the constitution of the 1960 and the S.Y.L charter .Today that concept is obsolete and not viable and against the National Interest of the Somali Republic Nation-State.Here I am writing about a fact that some Somalis influenced by the Salafist Movement and those allied to ETHIOPIA are still trying to negate as we were still in the 60" 70". Somalis  live and are National-citizens in Ethiopia ,Kenya and Djibouti Republic and enjoy the constitutional rights accorded to all citizens of that countries.They are part and parcel of those Nation states as politicians,businesses people,army officers etc.Till recently the Commandant of the IGAD-AMISOM Army in Somalia under AU/UN was a Djibouti Army officers who is of Somali ethnic origin.
The ETHIOPIAN ambassador to Somali Republic is a Somali Ethnic from Somali region of ETHIOPIA but represents the Hegemonic- sub colonizing interest of ETHIOPIA.There are plenty of examples but this are enough to say things have changed and there is not any more what we call the "Greater Somalia"Agenda. But the Tigre -TPLF- has used that dream of the Somalis which where also the basis of the war of 1977 to convince the countries in the West, countries in the East, African Union,Asian Countries that Somalis were trying to change Colonial borders  and uses it as a means to control and subdivide Somali Republic.But also portrayed all Somalis as Salafist Jihadist while they were allied secretly with puppet Leaders  who use sub- clans, and with Somali Salafist Business Cartels, ex-Warlords/Clan Enclaves Leaders.( see my post "The alliance of ETHIOPIA with Al-Ittixad ( The Union)  Movement " in my blog archive of  December 2012.See also "Who owns Somalia? #Alshabaab or ETHIOPIA-IGAD" of 2012)

         The enduring Somali Conflict of Clan sectarianism- subdivision and Salafism  Movement Agenda. 

The Tigre-Ethiopian regime used the Clan Culture to subdivide, use and control warlords, Somali puppet Leaders and make them  rulers of Clan Enclaves.But from how things are going on in |ETHIOPIA  it will make harder for the Tigre/TPLF to use the sub-colonization of Somalia as a means to rally the different communities of ETHIOPIA and hide their economic exploitation,dictatorship inside their country.For Somalia it will become impossible in the near future to call the Consul of ETHIOPIA in Garowe to address the opening of the Puntland state region parliament as he were the colonial power.It will become  almost impossible to continue the habit to report to Addis Ababa every month about Somali issues to Tigre TPLF/EPRDF leaders by Somali  regional Puppet Leaders.It will become also impossible the selling of ammunition through  third parties by Tigre intelligence to #Alshabaab arranged by the Somali Salafist Business cartels. The ETHIOPIA regimes have had a connection with groups part of Somali Salafist movement which infiltrated the opposition groups later warlords/puppet leaders  -from 80'- and this is the main reason why never #Alshabaab has attacked ETHIOPIA except one time made up operation. The attacks inside Somalia apart those of 2006-7 are all made up specially in Bakol and Gedo regions. For the Tigre ruling Elites the #Alshabaab menace is a  motive to interfere continuously in Somali internal affairs and tell the whole world that they are against Salafist Jihadist in the Horn  while they have a secret alliance. The Salafist Movement of Somalia -Al-Ittixad Movement- has subdivided itself in different sub groups but the most powerful is the Salafist Business Cartels and the Salafist Jihadist of #Alshabaab and #Dacesh( IS). The Business cartels themselves are divided in sub groups. ( see my post " Who are the business people of Somalia" ). Some are allied to ETHIOPIA, others close to #Alshabaab and  some the big  Conglomerates have came to realize their interests is best served with the Somali Republic in a federal Nation state and for others the jury is still out there for whom they stand with.But none of them can say to other Salafist they have changed political outlook to save their capital and future.But all of them still dominate the Clan Enclaves economies while the Puppet Leaders of regional Clan Enclave are still under  ETHIOPIA.Just like ETHIOPIA the  Somali Salafist Business cartels are against one Nation State for the Somali Republic and that is the strategic convergence between them and Tigre TPLF/EPRDF.

        The  plan of Somali Salafist Jihadist to have a "Caliphate" in the Horn.

The Somalis Ethnic group in the Horn is the only tribe which has its own Nation-State with one language ,culture and Islam as its religion. This factors make the Somalis a "special" Ethnic group in Africa and Muslim world.The Ethiopians regime from the past and the Tigre have all planned for their economic/political reasons  to conquer and subjugate the Somali Republic.But also the Somali Salafist Movement has planned to have Somali Republic subdivided as Salafist Emirates and  base for their Agenda to expand to all regions of the Horn inhabited by Muslims and institutionalize a "Caliphate". The alliance of the Somali Salafist Business Cartels with ETHIOPIA is a tactical phase which the new dynamics of the OROMOS uprising I think have changed if not even before.The Somali Salafist Movement has always believed that the Oromos were their best ally and now there is a good chance that alliance will be consolidated and promoted to use the Oromos for their wars to have a Caliphate in the Horn.

                     CONCLUSION

                      If the TPLF/EPRDF continues with its politics to sub-colonize Somali Republic  as they have done all this years and they continue in the same time their oppressive policies inside ETHIOPIA that will assist the emergence/development and complete implementation of the "Caliphate" in the Horn in the long run.The Somali Salafist Jihadist are increasingly  loosing military ground and public-citizens/Clan loyalty within Somalis and they need new fronts where the people have grievances and are ripe to fight for their Jihadist ideology and assist them with armament,training and finance. The OROMOS fit in that category and are neighbors to the Somali Republic.Will the Tigre regime of TPLF understand that danger and accept a peaceful,democratic  federal Somali Republic under one Nation state? Will  they accept the Somalis to have one Nation-State which its National Army,Intelligence and Police with a National economy under a federal state? Will they accept a democratic Somalia where Rule of the Law is practiced  and there is participatory democracy? I don't think so unless they are convinced by the international community or see in practice  the Salafist Jihadist coming to ETHIOPIA. ( See my post " OIL and GAS mini CLAN -ENCLAVES and ETHIOPIA-IGAD Hegemony ")






          

 

   

#Somalia: Part 1:THE PRESIDENCY OF " FARMAAJO".HOW THINGS AR...

#Somalia: Part 1:THE PRESIDENCY OF " FARMAAJO".HOW THINGS AR...: Introduction: It’s almost less than a month before reaching the milestone of the first anniversary of the Election of President Mohamed...

#Somalia: Part 1:THE PRESIDENCY OF " FARMAAJO".HOW THINGS A...

#Somalia: Part 1:THE PRESIDENCY OF " FARMAAJO".HOW THINGHS A...: Introduction: It’s almost less than a month before reaching the milestone of the first anniversary of the Election of President Mohamed...

#Somalia: Part 1:THE PRESIDENCY OF " FARMAAJO".HOW THINGHS A...

#Somalia: Part 1:THE PRESIDENCY OF " FARMAAJO".HOW THINGHS A...: Introduction: It’s almost less than a month before reaching the milestone of the first anniversary of the Election of President Mohamed...

Part 1:THE PRESIDENCY OF " FARMAAJO".HOW THINGS ARE AND MAJOR ISSUES.

Introduction:

It’s almost less than a month before reaching the milestone of the first anniversary of the Election of President Mohamed Abdullahi "Farmaajo" of 08/ February 2017.I thought it’s time to make some recapping,see how things have changed or are the same, what are the major challenges and hurdles waiting for this administration of President #Farmaajo and of PM #Khayre during 2018. Usually I use my blog to write, and listen to the feeling of the cyber communities, the real Somali people which in Nairobi are mostly traders busy with their daily sales, some refugees who had the fortune to educate their children in town. More to that the usual plethora of Clan based groups who monopolize the cultural/ religious and political mind of Somalis from Somali Republic which are manipulated in their thinking by Somali(social) media. Its a good microcosm of Somali Society. Here I will try to take up different topics and make an inclusive short comment/analysis on some of the most important groups and basic issues.

The MEDIA ISSUE

The Somali Media is really the fourth Estate in Somali Republic and the Somali government passed the Media law which was redrawn different times and passed in Federal Parliament. In other words just like other developed democracies in the West some even African countries the Media is one of most powerful branches of society(State) but in a different ways in Somalia. The Somali media who is mostly made of internet websites -my guess of 85%- and  Somali TVS who are Clan based and lately TVs of Clan Enclaves except the British BBC Somali  and US VOA-Somali and the Somali National Radio and TV, are all those who  make the headlines,some time the narrative, influence, filter and control the information they get  the members of Somali Clan based society. But this information is biased, manufactured in a way that assists, promotes vested group interests who are bent in controlling the Government, economy, Clans and present (future) Constitutional framework of the Somali Republic. Some of this Media also bribed by foreign powers, corrupt Elites Clan Enclaves and Central government, but camouflages, makes the news look like-quoted from the Clan politicians- which they cover as representatives of different sub Clans based groups, political stands and interests. Just like in the America of Trump the Somali citizens or whoever gets this fake news Somali style is manipulated to believe in this news and reinforce his Clan thinking on what he is already believing. There is no need of objectivity and proof of the facts when transmitting news  and they have put role of Media in general to inform and educate the citizens- readers/listeners- out of the window this Ad based websites and biased TVs. The real problem is this young men had not had any Journalistic training and not been thought ethics of profession and they are doing this to earn a living without any Rules and Code of Conduct. There is at least some of them specially those in English which are working to inform but always on the Clan biased stand although they are better.Some times when there is a political crisis looks like a warfare on the internet where the most visceral, ancestral Clan feelings are used. This also happens in the social media which has become one of the most used media. I guess almost 60% of  Somali Media users in the internet also use Facebook, WhatsApp, small English speaking are on Twitter, and  this cyber platforms have become one of the most sites where you can abuse everybody if you write in Somali language or even English and promote fake news. In this morass of feelings and pseudo analyses the reason and the main Role of media to make accountable politicians, business people, religious groups, civil society groups, who are part of political and social  arenas; and all vested interest groups, pseudo political groups which are all Clan based (we have suitcases parties without any Law on parties), National government and Clan enclaves regions, including the Salafist Business Cartels and Salafist Jihadist of #Alshabaab #Dacish, is totally lost.  But its also true that the Media groups and journalist in Somalia are killed in big numbers more than politicians by #Alshabaab every year to put fear( control) on them and society in general. They are also arrested without any charges by so called Clan Enclaves administrations and sometime by National Federal government and its one of the times this young men inform well that one of them is in Jail. I believe media people,institutions are one of the important groups in this day and age of Nation Building, Institution Building. The National Federal state and international community specially UN, international NGOs must assist this young men to have a strong,federal,democratic, professional organization and Media Institute which gives seminars and diplomas in Journalism as capacity building to those already working. Somali society is an oral society and great users of culture and Media, anything connected to it can be used to promote National values/Institution building.The capacity of state to make real Nation Building is made greater by an objective, professional, participatory and national media which is part of civil society and stakeholder.

CLAN ENCLAVES SECTARIANISM -Vs- ONE NATION-STATE  FEDERAL SYSTEM

         From late 80" Somali society has became polarized in a radical way in Clan based thinking ( Siad Barre government and  outside opposition) and from 90" the only (valid) political thinking was based on manipulative Clan sectarianism/ Clan power.The Salafist Movement- which includes #Alshabaab- and the warlords first and later the puppet leaders used Clan as a means to antagonize Somalis between themselves and control as groups of Clans or sub clans and have Clan Enclaves. To make short a long story from the 2012 with the enactment of the provisional/transitional Constitution we have codified the subdivision of Somali Republic in Clan Enclaves model of federal system by name but with a quasi- Clan Confederate system in the actual practice and part of constitution.During the preparation of this dysfunctional Constitution the UN and so called international community,#ETHIOPIA-IGAD,Arab countries all accepted and promoted this wrong project of subdividing Somali Republic in Clan Enclaves. The Election of President Mohamed Abdullahi"Farmaajo" was partially a reaction to subdivision in Clan Enclaves and hegemonic control by #ETHIOPIA and later #UAE on Somali affairs and the wrong (Confederate) Clan Enclaves system ( read my post "Who owns Somalia? Alshabaab or Ethiopia-IGAD" 2012. "OIL and GAS mini CLAN ENCLAVES and ETHIOPIA-IGAD Hegemony" 2012. ).
The National Agenda of new government has angered local and regional vested  interests groups like #ETHIOPIA and #UAE and they started to stand against the new government and make more polarized Somali Clans communities by using Clan Enclaves Leaders and so called Salafist politicians and those puppet politicians allied to ETHIOPIA/UAE to oppose government.But President #Farmaajo/PM Khayre have started a new way of governing and promoting a National Federal state above the Clan sectarianism advocated by so called Clan Enclaves Leaders, launched a National Security architecture which is made of a National Army,Police and intelligence and trying to gave a National finance/tax system and National development plan,National Telecom Act etc . All is just at the  beginning in terms of National security and a National federal state,National economy( we have Clan Enclaves economies owned by Salafist cartels) which represents all Somali people citizens. The most controversial issue is the so called provisional constitution,the institutionalization of Clan Enclaves which has become the" means"to advocate for Clan Enclaves and make Somalis as different "People's" or even citizens of Clan Enclaves which its members share some issues and have different foreign and political Agendas.That was the state of affairs before president #Farmaajo was elected.(see my blog " The new political Map for Somali speaking people's of the Horn").

        The main issue which the #Farmaajo government must concentrate its minds and resources is the Constitution #redrafting of the provisional constitution. The people-citizens have never chosen this dysfunctional and contradictory document and those forces allied to vested group interest of the African region and Arab region are trying to retain this divisive model which will bring the end of Somali UNITY and even National state if not completely changed via new Constitution.Now Somalis are Clan members not citizens of a country called Somalia,its like every Clan has its own  mini-Clan-Nation and government and can run own own affairs even exploitation  of National resources like OIL/GAS and fishing rights,legislating on every issue and program etc.But the Somalis have never chosen this model and nobody has asked them in referendum or any legal means but they are told by Puppet leaders that its the only way their Clan can prosper and have a future and not in a Somali Nation state as a whole.I have seen just a week ago that Jubbaland is trying to draft with assistance from #UNSOM a new Media Law. But already Somali Federal Parliament has passed a Law which its jurisdiction is for all the national federal states which Jubbaland is part.Why UN is doing this illegal tasks? They are part of the Plan to subdivide Somali Republic in Clan Enclaves? If the government will not succeed in convincing the Somali citizens that their interest is best protected in a National Federal government where some powers are devolved to regional states and there is one-Nation state and the subdivision based in Clan sectarianism is bad then things will fall apart. The government must start a huge Media campaign to educate - even telling them they are citizens - and national citizenship  is above Clan member  kingship and is the basis of the Unity of inhabitants of the Somali Republic and its existence.Yes Clan culture and role of clan as civil society stakeholders of society is here to stay but National state which represents the National interests of all Somali sub-Clan communities- people citizens is paramount.Every Clan whatever its size and economic power must participate and be part and get the fruits of the National state institution and resources without any social, legal constraints. All Somali citizens and inhabitants of the Somali Republic of whatever sub Clan must be equal in front of the Law from all regions of Somali Republic.The distinctions of from Clan( reer) Puntland,Clan(reer) Benadir, Clan(reer)Galmudug,Clan(reer) Junbbaland etc being given to sub-clans which is a model of sectarianism must be substituted by a regional constituency where Somali  citizens-inhabitants who are born and came to live in the region state have rights and the Land is owned by the State except the "Goof" rights of the Constitution of 1961.The "Goof" rights gives everybody who live on the land be pastoralist or farmer the rights to own a small piece of the Land for his personal use.The other land must be used for under the Law and protected by the state.The  #Farmaajo government must put a lot of energy and resources in the institutionalization of the Rule of the Law in Judiciary,good governance which promotes social welfare and the Somali  Federal state in the new constitution  must be in charge of Education,health,Housing for the poor,National resources like Oil and Gas,minerals exploitation,fishing rights,National Economy- taxation with devolved tax system for regions,Security in all sectors,citizenship etc.I believe the government must convince the Somali people citizens,Elites,Clan elders that they are best protected under one Nation federal state with devolved powers for regional and local institutions and not the Cantonal/Confederate system called Clan Enclaves states planned by ETHIOPIA.

Part- 2     Trans-formative Leadership and National Culture/Values in one- NATION STATE.