INTRODUCTION:
In this post I will try to explain from the point of view of- a Somali from Somali Republic- if it can bring change to the Horn the resignation of Ethiopia PM on 15/Feb/2018 .What will it bring to the enduring Somali conflict? Will it bring change or will be business as usual? What about the Puppet Leaders/ ex-Warlords/ Salafist MPs/Organized Crimes/Drug Cartels using their Clans and sub-clans who are allied to ETHIOPIA? What about the Salafist Business Cartels who had a strategic convergence with the Tigre regime of ETHIOPIA? What about the Salafist Jihadist-of #Alshabaab and #Dacesh- who have planned for Oromos part of their wars to have a Caliphate in Somalia for all Muslims of the Horn? Can the Tigre-TPLF/EPRDF- and new would be rulers regime will came to understand that Somali Republic cannot be sub colonized by ETHIOPIA ? I will give my take on this questions.( While I am writing this post things have not still settled in ETHIOPIA).
HISTORICAL BACKGROUND of SOMALIA and ETHIOPIA
RELATIONSHIPS ( A short view.)
-ETHIOPIA-
RELATIONSHIPS ( A short view.)
-ETHIOPIA-
The Ethiopians/Abyssinian were invited to the Berlin Conference as a Christian Nation in Africa and was included in the Scramble for Africa planned and executed by the Europeans the following years in Africa.In Ethiopian schools that fact is overlooked.They portray themselves as freedom fighters for the African continent and anti colonialist.That is just part of the history and even other Africans states believe.The Abyssinian were given by the EUROPEANS territories in the Horn and expanded to control other National Ethnic groups after World War II which today makes the Federal Republic of ETHIOPIA.The States in Africa are not made of one ETHNIC group- like Somali Republic and other two African states- there fore could be called normal the formation and institutionalization of ETHIOPIA made by the Colonial powers like all the states of AFRICA. During that expansion and formation Ethiopia has become a multi-Ethnic Nation State were Christians, Muslims and Pagans lived side by side. But State Power/Security Institutions/Army and Economy were always in the hands of some ETHNIC groups like Amhara till 1974 and later of the Tigre from 1991.The coming to power of the TPLF/EPRDF of Meles Zenawi from 1991 was the beginning of the subdivision of Somali Republic in Clan Enclaves- like Somali-land, Punt-land, Jubba-land, Galmudug etc with a power less so called federal government under the hegemony of the Tigre regime of ETHIOPIA and the control of every Somali Clan Enclaves economy by the Salafist Business Cartels. The presidency of #Farmaajo has started to change that state of affairs but we are just at the beginning.
-SOMALIA-
Somalis in the Horn had their Nation State and homeland in 1960.The two colonies of British Somaliland and Italian Somaliland were united in a National state called Somali Republic on Jun 26/1960 and 1/July/1960. The Somali Nationalism of 50" 60" 70" was also based on the concept of "Greater Somalia" which included all the territories inhabited by Somalis in the Horn. The concept was enshrined in the constitution of the 1960 and the S.Y.L charter .Today that concept is obsolete and not viable and against the National Interest of the Somali Republic Nation-State.Here I am writing about a fact that some Somalis influenced by the Salafist Movement and those allied to ETHIOPIA are still trying to negate as we were still in the 60" 70". Somalis live and are National-citizens in Ethiopia ,Kenya and Djibouti Republic and enjoy the constitutional rights accorded to all citizens of that countries.They are part and parcel of those Nation states as politicians,businesses people,army officers etc.Till recently the Commandant of the IGAD-AMISOM Army in Somalia under AU/UN was a Djibouti Army officers who is of Somali ethnic origin.
The ETHIOPIAN ambassador to Somali Republic is a Somali Ethnic from Somali region of ETHIOPIA but represents the Hegemonic- sub colonizing interest of ETHIOPIA.There are plenty of examples but this are enough to say things have changed and there is not any more what we call the "Greater Somalia"Agenda. But the Tigre -TPLF- has used that dream of the Somalis which where also the basis of the war of 1977 to convince the countries in the West, countries in the East, African Union,Asian Countries that Somalis were trying to change Colonial borders and uses it as a means to control and subdivide Somali Republic.But also portrayed all Somalis as Salafist Jihadist while they were allied secretly with puppet Leaders who use sub- clans, and with Somali Salafist Business Cartels, ex-Warlords/Clan Enclaves Leaders.( see my post "The alliance of ETHIOPIA with Al-Ittixad ( The Union) Movement " in my blog archive of December 2012.See also "Who owns Somalia? #Alshabaab or ETHIOPIA-IGAD" of 2012)
The enduring Somali Conflict of Clan sectarianism- subdivision and Salafism Movement Agenda.
The Tigre-Ethiopian regime used the Clan Culture to subdivide, use and control warlords, Somali puppet Leaders and make them rulers of Clan Enclaves.But from how things are going on in |ETHIOPIA it will make harder for the Tigre/TPLF to use the sub-colonization of Somalia as a means to rally the different communities of ETHIOPIA and hide their economic exploitation,dictatorship inside their country.For Somalia it will become impossible in the near future to call the Consul of ETHIOPIA in Garowe to address the opening of the Puntland state region parliament as he were the colonial power.It will become almost impossible to continue the habit to report to Addis Ababa every month about Somali issues to Tigre TPLF/EPRDF leaders by Somali regional Puppet Leaders.It will become also impossible the selling of ammunition through third parties by Tigre intelligence to #Alshabaab arranged by the Somali Salafist Business cartels. The ETHIOPIA regimes have had a connection with groups part of Somali Salafist movement which infiltrated the opposition groups later warlords/puppet leaders -from 80'- and this is the main reason why never #Alshabaab has attacked ETHIOPIA except one time made up operation. The attacks inside Somalia apart those of 2006-7 are all made up specially in Bakol and Gedo regions. For the Tigre ruling Elites the #Alshabaab menace is a motive to interfere continuously in Somali internal affairs and tell the whole world that they are against Salafist Jihadist in the Horn while they have a secret alliance. The Salafist Movement of Somalia -Al-Ittixad Movement- has subdivided itself in different sub groups but the most powerful is the Salafist Business Cartels and the Salafist Jihadist of #Alshabaab and #Dacesh( IS). The Business cartels themselves are divided in sub groups. ( see my post " Who are the business people of Somalia" ). Some are allied to ETHIOPIA, others close to #Alshabaab and some the big Conglomerates have came to realize their interests is best served with the Somali Republic in a federal Nation state and for others the jury is still out there for whom they stand with.But none of them can say to other Salafist they have changed political outlook to save their capital and future.But all of them still dominate the Clan Enclaves economies while the Puppet Leaders of regional Clan Enclave are still under ETHIOPIA.Just like ETHIOPIA the Somali Salafist Business cartels are against one Nation State for the Somali Republic and that is the strategic convergence between them and Tigre TPLF/EPRDF.
The plan of Somali Salafist Jihadist to have a "Caliphate" in the Horn.
The Somalis Ethnic group in the Horn is the only tribe which has its own Nation-State with one language ,culture and Islam as its religion. This factors make the Somalis a "special" Ethnic group in Africa and Muslim world.The Ethiopians regime from the past and the Tigre have all planned for their economic/political reasons to conquer and subjugate the Somali Republic.But also the Somali Salafist Movement has planned to have Somali Republic subdivided as Salafist Emirates and base for their Agenda to expand to all regions of the Horn inhabited by Muslims and institutionalize a "Caliphate". The alliance of the Somali Salafist Business Cartels with ETHIOPIA is a tactical phase which the new dynamics of the OROMOS uprising I think have changed if not even before.The Somali Salafist Movement has always believed that the Oromos were their best ally and now there is a good chance that alliance will be consolidated and promoted to use the Oromos for their wars to have a Caliphate in the Horn.
CONCLUSION
If the TPLF/EPRDF continues with its politics to sub-colonize Somali Republic as they have done all this years and they continue in the same time their oppressive policies inside ETHIOPIA that will assist the emergence/development and complete implementation of the "Caliphate" in the Horn in the long run.The Somali Salafist Jihadist are increasingly loosing military ground and public-citizens/Clan loyalty within Somalis and they need new fronts where the people have grievances and are ripe to fight for their Jihadist ideology and assist them with armament,training and finance. The OROMOS fit in that category and are neighbors to the Somali Republic.Will the Tigre regime of TPLF understand that danger and accept a peaceful,democratic federal Somali Republic under one Nation state? Will they accept the Somalis to have one Nation-State which its National Army,Intelligence and Police with a National economy under a federal state? Will they accept a democratic Somalia where Rule of the Law is practiced and there is participatory democracy? I don't think so unless they are convinced by the international community or see in practice the Salafist Jihadist coming to ETHIOPIA. ( See my post " OIL and GAS mini CLAN -ENCLAVES and ETHIOPIA-IGAD Hegemony ")
-SOMALIA-
Somalis in the Horn had their Nation State and homeland in 1960.The two colonies of British Somaliland and Italian Somaliland were united in a National state called Somali Republic on Jun 26/1960 and 1/July/1960. The Somali Nationalism of 50" 60" 70" was also based on the concept of "Greater Somalia" which included all the territories inhabited by Somalis in the Horn. The concept was enshrined in the constitution of the 1960 and the S.Y.L charter .Today that concept is obsolete and not viable and against the National Interest of the Somali Republic Nation-State.Here I am writing about a fact that some Somalis influenced by the Salafist Movement and those allied to ETHIOPIA are still trying to negate as we were still in the 60" 70". Somalis live and are National-citizens in Ethiopia ,Kenya and Djibouti Republic and enjoy the constitutional rights accorded to all citizens of that countries.They are part and parcel of those Nation states as politicians,businesses people,army officers etc.Till recently the Commandant of the IGAD-AMISOM Army in Somalia under AU/UN was a Djibouti Army officers who is of Somali ethnic origin.
The ETHIOPIAN ambassador to Somali Republic is a Somali Ethnic from Somali region of ETHIOPIA but represents the Hegemonic- sub colonizing interest of ETHIOPIA.There are plenty of examples but this are enough to say things have changed and there is not any more what we call the "Greater Somalia"Agenda. But the Tigre -TPLF- has used that dream of the Somalis which where also the basis of the war of 1977 to convince the countries in the West, countries in the East, African Union,Asian Countries that Somalis were trying to change Colonial borders and uses it as a means to control and subdivide Somali Republic.But also portrayed all Somalis as Salafist Jihadist while they were allied secretly with puppet Leaders who use sub- clans, and with Somali Salafist Business Cartels, ex-Warlords/Clan Enclaves Leaders.( see my post "The alliance of ETHIOPIA with Al-Ittixad ( The Union) Movement " in my blog archive of December 2012.See also "Who owns Somalia? #Alshabaab or ETHIOPIA-IGAD" of 2012)
The enduring Somali Conflict of Clan sectarianism- subdivision and Salafism Movement Agenda.
The Tigre-Ethiopian regime used the Clan Culture to subdivide, use and control warlords, Somali puppet Leaders and make them rulers of Clan Enclaves.But from how things are going on in |ETHIOPIA it will make harder for the Tigre/TPLF to use the sub-colonization of Somalia as a means to rally the different communities of ETHIOPIA and hide their economic exploitation,dictatorship inside their country.For Somalia it will become impossible in the near future to call the Consul of ETHIOPIA in Garowe to address the opening of the Puntland state region parliament as he were the colonial power.It will become almost impossible to continue the habit to report to Addis Ababa every month about Somali issues to Tigre TPLF/EPRDF leaders by Somali regional Puppet Leaders.It will become also impossible the selling of ammunition through third parties by Tigre intelligence to #Alshabaab arranged by the Somali Salafist Business cartels. The ETHIOPIA regimes have had a connection with groups part of Somali Salafist movement which infiltrated the opposition groups later warlords/puppet leaders -from 80'- and this is the main reason why never #Alshabaab has attacked ETHIOPIA except one time made up operation. The attacks inside Somalia apart those of 2006-7 are all made up specially in Bakol and Gedo regions. For the Tigre ruling Elites the #Alshabaab menace is a motive to interfere continuously in Somali internal affairs and tell the whole world that they are against Salafist Jihadist in the Horn while they have a secret alliance. The Salafist Movement of Somalia -Al-Ittixad Movement- has subdivided itself in different sub groups but the most powerful is the Salafist Business Cartels and the Salafist Jihadist of #Alshabaab and #Dacesh( IS). The Business cartels themselves are divided in sub groups. ( see my post " Who are the business people of Somalia" ). Some are allied to ETHIOPIA, others close to #Alshabaab and some the big Conglomerates have came to realize their interests is best served with the Somali Republic in a federal Nation state and for others the jury is still out there for whom they stand with.But none of them can say to other Salafist they have changed political outlook to save their capital and future.But all of them still dominate the Clan Enclaves economies while the Puppet Leaders of regional Clan Enclave are still under ETHIOPIA.Just like ETHIOPIA the Somali Salafist Business cartels are against one Nation State for the Somali Republic and that is the strategic convergence between them and Tigre TPLF/EPRDF.
The plan of Somali Salafist Jihadist to have a "Caliphate" in the Horn.
The Somalis Ethnic group in the Horn is the only tribe which has its own Nation-State with one language ,culture and Islam as its religion. This factors make the Somalis a "special" Ethnic group in Africa and Muslim world.The Ethiopians regime from the past and the Tigre have all planned for their economic/political reasons to conquer and subjugate the Somali Republic.But also the Somali Salafist Movement has planned to have Somali Republic subdivided as Salafist Emirates and base for their Agenda to expand to all regions of the Horn inhabited by Muslims and institutionalize a "Caliphate". The alliance of the Somali Salafist Business Cartels with ETHIOPIA is a tactical phase which the new dynamics of the OROMOS uprising I think have changed if not even before.The Somali Salafist Movement has always believed that the Oromos were their best ally and now there is a good chance that alliance will be consolidated and promoted to use the Oromos for their wars to have a Caliphate in the Horn.
CONCLUSION
