Wednesday, July 11, 2018

WHY Dr abiy AHMED WENT TO MOGADISHU? FOR OIL & GAS,OROMO UPRISING.




INTRODUCTION:

          On 16 June MR. Abiy  Ahmed PM of Ethiopia went to visit  Mogadishu as part of his new political offensive to save his country from internal political and economic crisis.Before this visit he went to Egypt to agree with them a modus operandi for the Nile water and had accepted the UN resolution on the dispute with Eritrea and  to withdraw from  their territory. Somalia was the last trip of that political offensive but with different approach and game plan.In this post I will try to give my take on the "New Political Strategy" of Ethiopia vis-a- vis Somalia and how their are covering up their  political weakness with fake Media disinformation and manipulation of Clan Puppet Leaders.Also how Mogadishu Leaders has been naive in believing the false overtures of Dr. Aby Ahmed PM by signing with him a Joint Communique which stated that Ethiopia "will be part of investments in Somali Ports".  In reality Dr. Abiy PM is worried about the Natural Gas exploitation to be started in the SOMALI region of ETHIOPIA and the wider OROMO uprising which is threatening to change the "OLD ORDER" made of political and economic systems which are Ethnic based and are exploitative,oppressive.I will also write about the end game of #UAE alliance with #Ethiopia and so called Loan by #UAE of 3 Billion US dollars to Ethiopia.( While I was writing this post President #Farmaajo went to Somali National TV and declared "the Ports are on Somali territory and investment will came all over the world" in short. Some days later on 23 June there was a grenade thrown at Dr.Abiy Ahmed PM rally at Meskel square in Addis Abeba and on 28/06/18 Ethiopia started the first shipment of OIL from Somali region.The ONLF- the Somali-Ethiopian opposition movement fighting Ethiopia regime had started a meeting of the group in Asmara, Eritrea.) 


 ETHIOPIAN INTERNAL CRISIS: THE "OROMO" UPRISING

                   For the last three years there has been going on  in ETHIOPIA a big uprising of the OROMO speaking Nationality  but mostly concentrated in the OROMIA region.It was one of the main reason the former PM Hailemariam resigned from his job after he failed to (quell and suppress) the uprising which now includes also the Amhara  ethnic region.For centuries the OROMO has been denied their basic rights in their own Land like their political and economic rights as citizens of Ethiopia to whom they are almost 45% of the total population. They are majority Muslim and inhabit the most fertile land where coffee and tea for export are cultivated and as citizens occupy the second biggest land mass as Ethnic State after the Somali region of the Federal  Republic of Ethiopia.Also its their land were gold and other minerals are mined and exported. But they aren't part of the commercial exploitation of their  land be it in agricultural or mineral export.Most of the OROMO would like a democratic change were their economic and political  rights are secured as majority Ethnic-group in ETHIOPIA but that is also changing the Ethnic based "OLD ORDER" which is not part of the strategy of the Ruling TPLF/EPRDF Elites. Some of the OROMO people are part of the OROMO Liberation Front (OLF) which all this years was advocating for a  separate new independent State.There are some groups of the OROMO people who could be linked to the Somali Salafist Movement which have already planned for a Caliphate of the Horn based in Somali Republic and the wider Muslim region of the HORN. Also there  is possibility this different groups get united and start an armed fight to overthrow the TPLF/EPRDF regime and to take over Ethiopia.This OROMO problem is one of he main reasons Dr.Abiy Ahmed PM of Ethiopia went to Mogadishu and the other one is the Somali region of Ethiopia Gas & OIL exploitation which is why there is a "New Political Strategy" for sub-colonization of Somali Republic. 


The Deposits of Natural Gas & OIL of Somali Region of Ethiopia.
 
        After the end of second World war the Americans and British companies went looking for OIL and GAS in what today is the  Ethnic-Somali Region of Ethiopia or Killin 5 as is commonly known.They had found it but unfortunately never exploited for political reasons.The Somali Republic from 60' was claiming at that time those territories were part of the "Great Somalia". There was two wars in 1964 and 1977 between Somali Republic and Ethiopia. In 1968 there was what is called the Arusha conference between Somalia, Kenya and Ethiopia in which at the background were sitting the US major OIL companies. At that meeting the agenda was for the Somali Republic to accept the colonial borders and change their claim for a "greater" Somali Republic and in exchange the Oil and Gas of the Somali region of Ethiopia and the Oil and Gas of Somalia will be exploited for the benefit of the citizens of those countries. On this issue were linked the peace in the region, cooperation  and development and most importantly the exploitation of OIL and GAS in Somali Republic and Ethiopia.The government of M.Ibrashim Egal( 1967-1969) was trying to change the "Greater Somalia" agenda in exchange for peace and development for the Republic.A big under taking at that time. The meetings concluded with the understanding that Somali Republic will accept the African colonial borders.The main mistakes of the Egal government was that it never prepared Somali people for the meetings outcomes and for this big political change of an epic magnitude.The other issues were that inside the ruling  party SYL some factions were against the Arusha Conference and supportive of the greater Somalia agenda.More to that the Somali Armed forces were trained and totally controlled by the Soviet Union including the Military intelligence from 1963 and being prepared all this years for an eventual war with Ethiopia- which will occur in 1977.In 1969 came the Military coup to take over from the civilian and democratically elected government and partially sponsored by the Soviet Union who were controlling by training and giving/selling armaments to our Armed forces.One of the main justification of the coup was that the Egal government was giving up on Somali territorial claims.That is the reasons the Ethiopian governments from Menghiste/Meles  till today their Agenda is to destroy Somali Republic as one United State and own ,control politically/economically the vast reserves of OIL and GAS of Somali Republic.The Somali Republic is not claiming any more rights on those Ethiopian territories but there is an ethnic link and cultural link which is  based on Somali Kingship. From 1984 the Somalis from Ethiopia started their own rebellion and formed a political- military movement not linked and independent from Somali Republic to represent the people of their region called ONLF which in these days is hoped will go in talks with the Addis Abeba government. Today that Somali  region of Ethiopia is represented by its own people be the puppet administration,Elders, or the rebel opposition movement and not anymore pawns in a chess game between Somalia and Ethiopia. For Ethiopia  the most important aim of their regional "New Political strategy" is to control as a hegemonic power all territory of the Somali Republic subdivided as Clan Enclaves regional states with a week so called (Federal) Confederate State. This strategy is based on the thinking that the Somali Republic will support/stand up for the  Somali ONLF movement of Ethiopia and if there is a democratic government based on Rule of Law, respect of Human Rights,multiparty system in Somalia that will influence and be a model for the numerous communities of Ethiopia and the ethnic based "OLD Order" will be "Changed" in Ethiopia for the benefit of all Nationalities. But Ethiopia must know that Somali Republic and its people will never accept Somalis of Ethiopia made like the OGONI people of Nigeria and denied their rights .And if their are given their rights in the exploitation of OIL and GAS I think there will be peace in the region.For the time being Ethiopian intelligence,EPRDF Elites of Ethiopia think thy have infiltrated/have  connections with some of the Salafist Jihadist groups-using the Salafist Busines Cartels- and being close ally with the Somali Salafist Business cartels therefore they don't have a worry on links between Oromo people and Salafist Jihadist and Somalis standing up for the rights of Somalis of Ethiopia morally and politically.( See my post " Hailemariam resignation,Salafist Movement and the Caliphate in the Horn" of Feb 2018).

"New Political Strategy" of #Ethiopia to sub-colonize Somali Republic.

          For Ethiopia their  "New Political strategy" is to control as a hegemonic power all territory of the Somali Republic subdivided as Clan Enclaves regional states with a week so called (Federal) Confederate State.This is the master Plan but how to put it in practice? The Plan has been to use Somali "Clan Puppet Elites" of regional Clan Enclaves,economic means like trading Bloc of the Great Horn of Africa economic community- which controls and have partial ownership of Somali Ports with #UAE- while in the same time being close ally with the Somali Salafist Business Cartels-which are also Clan based- and have a Monopolistic grip and controls all Clan Enclaves regional economies.All this has to be done in a "Hybrid politics" manner using the Somalis themselves to promote and believe in this political project.How? Using an Image of Ethiopia as omnipotent political power and portrayed daily  in Somalia media as news and by Somali puppet politicians,and some Somali political commentators at bbcsomali.com  an Voasomali.com.This image is mixed with a  "historical political narrative" which its Clan based and sub-Clans which divides Somalis all the time as opposing Clans and sub-Clans,so called political factions fighting over resources and power,territory and third the Military and intelligence resources of Ethiopia allying themselves with some Somali sub-clans to control Somali Elites and have a never ending civil war by #Alshabaab the terror group and ISIL as new group. But there is a  new major factor in this new strategy to sub-colonize Somalia : The alliance of Ethiopia with GULF Arabs represented by United Arab Emirates.


The Alliance of Ethiopia with Arab Gulf states represented by UAE.