#Somalia: WHY Dr abiy AHMED WENT TO MOGADISHU? FOR OIL & GAS...

#Somalia: WHY Dr abiy AHMED WENT TO MOGADISHU? FOR OIL & GAS...: INTRODUCTION:            On 16 June MR. Abiy  Ahmed PM of Ethiopia went to visit  Mogadishu as part of his new political offensive ...

WHY Dr abiy AHMED WENT TO MOGADISHU? FOR OIL & GAS,OROMO UPRISING.

INTRODUCTION:

          On 16 June MR. Abiy  Ahmed PM of Ethiopia went to visit  Mogadishu as part of his new political offensive to save his country from internal political and economic crisis.Before this visit he went to Egypt to agree with them a modus operandi for the Nile water and had accepted the UN resolution on the dispute with Eritrea and  to withdraw from  their territory. Somalia was the last trip of that political offensive but with different approach and game plan.In this post I will try to give my take on the "New Political Strategy" of Ethiopia vis-a- vis Somalia and how their are covering up their  political weakness with fake Media disinformation and manipulation of Clan Puppet Leaders.Also how Mogadishu Leaders has been naive in believing the false overtures of Dr. Aby Ahmed PM by signing with him a Joint Communique which stated that Ethiopia "will be part of investments in Somali Ports".  In reality Dr. Abiy PM is worried about the Natural Gas exploitation to be started in the SOMALI region of ETHIOPIA and the wider OROMO uprising which is threatening to change the "OLD ORDER" made of political and economic systems which are Ethnic based and are exploitative,oppressive.I will also write about the end game of #UAE alliance with #Ethiopia and so called Loan by #UAE of 3 Billion US dollars to Ethiopia.( While I was writing this post President #Farmaajo went to Somali National TV and declared "the Ports are on Somali territory and investment will came all over the world" in short. Some days later on 23 June there was a grenade thrown at Dr.Abiy Ahmed PM rally at Meskel square in Addis Abeba and on 28/06/18 Ethiopia started the first shipment of OIL from Somali region.The ONLF- the Somali-Ethiopian opposition movement fighting Ethiopia regime had started a meeting of the group in Asmara, Eritrea.) 


 ETHIOPIAN INTERNAL CRISIS: THE "OROMO" UPRISING

                   For the last three years there has been going on  in ETHIOPIA a big uprising of the OROMO speaking Nationality  but mostly concentrated in the OROMIA region.It was one of the main reason the former PM Hailemariam resigned from his job after he failed to (quell and suppress) the uprising which now includes also the Amhara  ethnic region.For centuries the OROMO has been denied their basic rights in their own Land like their political and economic rights as citizens of Ethiopia to whom they are almost 45% of the total population. They are majority Muslim and inhabit the most fertile land where coffee and tea for export are cultivated and as citizens occupy the second biggest land mass as Ethnic State after the Somali region of the Federal  Republic of Ethiopia.Also its their land were gold and other minerals are mined and exported. But they aren't part of the commercial exploitation of their  land be it in agricultural or mineral export.Most of the OROMO would like a democratic change were their economic and political  rights are secured as majority Ethnic-group in ETHIOPIA but that is also changing the Ethnic based "OLD ORDER" which is not part of the strategy of the Ruling TPLF/EPRDF Elites. Some of the OROMO people are part of the OROMO Liberation Front (OLF) which all this years was advocating for a  separate new independent State.There are some groups of the OROMO people who could be linked to the Somali Salafist Movement which have already planned for a Caliphate of the Horn based in Somali Republic and the wider Muslim region of the HORN. Also there  is possibility this different groups get united and start an armed fight to overthrow the TPLF/EPRDF regime and to take over Ethiopia.This OROMO problem is one of he main reasons Dr.Abiy Ahmed PM of Ethiopia went to Mogadishu and the other one is the Somali region of Ethiopia Gas & OIL exploitation which is why there is a "New Political Strategy" for sub-colonization of Somali Republic. 


The Deposits of Natural Gas & OIL of Somali Region of Ethiopia.
 
        After the end of second World war the Americans and British companies went looking for OIL and GAS in what today is the  Ethnic-Somali Region of Ethiopia or Killin 5 as is commonly known.They had found it but unfortunately never exploited for political reasons.The Somali Republic from 60' was claiming at that time those territories were part of the "Great Somalia". There was two wars in 1964 and 1977 between Somali Republic and Ethiopia. In 1968 there was what is called the Arusha conference between Somalia, Kenya and Ethiopia in which at the background were sitting the US major OIL companies. At that meeting the agenda was for the Somali Republic to accept the colonial borders and change their claim for a "greater" Somali Republic and in exchange the Oil and Gas of the Somali region of Ethiopia and the Oil and Gas of Somalia will be exploited for the benefit of the citizens of those countries. On this issue were linked the peace in the region, cooperation  and development and most importantly the exploitation of OIL and GAS in Somali Republic and Ethiopia.The government of M.Ibrashim Egal( 1967-1969) was trying to change the "Greater Somalia" agenda in exchange for peace and development for the Republic.A big under taking at that time. The meetings concluded with the understanding that Somali Republic will accept the African colonial borders.The main mistakes of the Egal government was that it never prepared Somali people for the meetings outcomes and for this big political change of an epic magnitude.The other issues were that inside the ruling  party SYL some factions were against the Arusha Conference and supportive of the greater Somalia agenda.More to that the Somali Armed forces were trained and totally controlled by the Soviet Union including the Military intelligence from 1963 and being prepared all this years for an eventual war with Ethiopia- which will occur in 1977.In 1969 came the Military coup to take over from the civilian and democratically elected government and partially sponsored by the Soviet Union who were controlling by training and giving/selling armaments to our Armed forces.One of the main justification of the coup was that the Egal government was giving up on Somali territorial claims.That is the reasons the Ethiopian governments from Menghiste/Meles  till today their Agenda is to destroy Somali Republic as one United State and own ,control politically/economically the vast reserves of OIL and GAS of Somali Republic.The Somali Republic is not claiming any more rights on those Ethiopian territories but there is an ethnic link and cultural link which is  based on Somali Kingship. From 1984 the Somalis from Ethiopia started their own rebellion and formed a political- military movement not linked and independent from Somali Republic to represent the people of their region called ONLF which in these days is hoped will go in talks with the Addis Abeba government. Today that Somali  region of Ethiopia is represented by its own people be the puppet administration,Elders, or the rebel opposition movement and not anymore pawns in a chess game between Somalia and Ethiopia. For Ethiopia  the most important aim of their regional "New Political strategy" is to control as a hegemonic power all territory of the Somali Republic subdivided as Clan Enclaves regional states with a week so called (Federal) Confederate State. This strategy is based on the thinking that the Somali Republic will support/stand up for the  Somali ONLF movement of Ethiopia and if there is a democratic government based on Rule of Law, respect of Human Rights,multiparty system in Somalia that will influence and be a model for the numerous communities of Ethiopia and the ethnic based "OLD Order" will be "Changed" in Ethiopia for the benefit of all Nationalities. But Ethiopia must know that Somali Republic and its people will never accept Somalis of Ethiopia made like the OGONI people of Nigeria and denied their rights .And if their are given their rights in the exploitation of OIL and GAS I think there will be peace in the region.For the time being Ethiopian intelligence,EPRDF Elites of Ethiopia think thy have infiltrated/have  connections with some of the Salafist Jihadist groups-using the Salafist Busines Cartels- and being close ally with the Somali Salafist Business cartels therefore they don't have a worry on links between Oromo people and Salafist Jihadist and Somalis standing up for the rights of Somalis of Ethiopia morally and politically.( See my post " Hailemariam resignation,Salafist Movement and the Caliphate in the Horn" of Feb 2018).

"New Political Strategy" of #Ethiopia to sub-colonize Somali Republic.
          For Ethiopia their  "New Political strategy" is to control as a hegemonic power all territory of the Somali Republic subdivided as Clan Enclaves regional states with a week so called (Federal) Confederate State.This is the master Plan but how to put it in practice? The Plan has been to use Somali "Clan Puppet Elites" of regional Clan Enclaves,economic means like trading Bloc of the Great Horn of Africa economic community- which controls and have partial ownership of Somali Ports with #UAE- while in the same time being close ally with the Somali Salafist Business Cartels-which are also Clan based- and have a Monopolistic grip and controls all Clan Enclaves regional economies.All this has to be done in a "Hybrid politics" manner using the Somalis themselves to promote and believe in this political project.How? Using an Image of Ethiopia as omnipotent political power and portrayed daily  in Somalia media as news and by Somali puppet politicians,and some Somali political commentators at bbcsomali.com  an Voasomali.com.This image is mixed with a  "historical political narrative" which its Clan based and sub-Clans which divides Somalis all the time as opposing Clans and sub-Clans,so called political factions fighting over resources and power,territory and third the Military and intelligence resources of Ethiopia allying themselves with some Somali sub-clans to control Somali Elites and have a never ending civil war by #Alshabaab the terror group and ISIL as new group. But there is a  new major factor in this new strategy to sub-colonize Somalia : The alliance of Ethiopia with GULF Arabs represented by United Arab Emirates.


The Alliance of Ethiopia with Arab Gulf states represented by UAE.

#Somalia: The #UAE MEDDLING in #SOMALIA and SPEAKER #JAWAARI...

#Somalia: The #UAE MEDDLING in #SOMALIA and SPEAKER #JAWAARI...: INTRODUCTION        In this post I will write about the #UAE meddling in Somali Republic and the saga of the resignation of Speaker Ja...

The #UAE MEDDLING in #SOMALIA and SPEAKER #JAWAARI RESIGNATION.

INTRODUCTION

       In this post I will write about the #UAE meddling in Somali Republic and the saga of the resignation of Speaker Jawaari .While I was writing this piece the UAE government has decided to withdraw its military assistance from Somalia and there is an all out Arab  media war by AL-Arabia against Somali republic but on 17 April 2018 the UAE through its State minister of Foreign affairs said that " It recognizes Somali Republic as sovereign" but still they are clinging to illegal deal with Somaliland region and Puntland region". 

The #UAE MEDDLING in SOMALIA and the Speaker #Jawaari resignation
  
        On 4th April 2018 the Speaker of Somali Federal parliament took armed guards with (PKM) assault rifles inside parliament to deny the debating and taking of vote of  no confidence against him.It was also an attempt to bring Chaos and Anarchy to parliament and the constitutional order of the Republic. It failed because the opposing group- representing the deputy speaker and PM- refused the bait and leaved parliament premises. But however the country was mired in a  zero -sum power struggle between the factions representing the President and PM- represented by deputy Speaker in the parliamentarian  tug of war- who had for first time brought real change in the country for a one Nation state- which I call the group  "NATIONALIST/FEDERALIST' and the Old groups of 2012 parliamentarians made of "Damu Jadid"  pro-Salafist member of parliament,those allied to #ETHIOPIA and #UAE groups- I call this group the  #CLAN ENCLAVES/CONFEDERATE". This time the  political fight against the government was led by the Speaker Jawaari himself.The rhetoric and accusations in the Media did not show what are the real issues. The struggle was a about who" will rule Somali Republic in the next three years and the political directions the country will take including what kind of new Constitution we will have, and which political group will determine the next political-constitutional  architecture of Somali Nation-State in a Federal system.". It was a power struggle in which the future life of millions of Somalis depended and the geopolitical stand of the Somali Republic in the region.In other words a Nation State in a Federal system project -Versus- Clan Enclaves/Confederate system project.This parliamentary tug of war will came abruptly to an end on the night of 8 April 2018 with an extraordinary meeting in the middle of the night between Speaker Jawaari and the President of the Republic Mohamed Abullahi "Farmaajo" culminating at the end  with speaker Jawaari resignation. Earlier in the afternoon the Somali government security services at Mogadishu International airport confiscated a large amount of money US $ 9.6 millions from #UAE,  coming in the country illegally under the cover of diplomatic posh.As the conspiracy theorist say most of the money was going to Speaker Jawaari to use as bribes for MP's ,so called politicians,the Media,civil servants and security services in this power struggle. This type of large corruption was done in all this years by Arab states to control and manipulate the Somali political system/Elites be central government or in Clan Enclaves regional states. It was mostly done by the #UAE government which had a meeting in 2016 with 4 regional Leaders and made illegal payments to them and signed illegal agreements with them.( please read my blog of Nov.2017  "UAE government  meetings with Somali Clan Enclaves Leaders" and the post " UAE, Ethiopia plans and the Qatar Boycott..... of June 2017.). Also its important to say that UAE was angered like a sub colonizing power and thought they have to make regime change in Somalia after a parliamentary vote banned -DP World - a UAE company which made illegal agreements to take over all Somali ports like Berbera, Bosaso and planned the port of Kismayo and Hobyo as following soon.But the most controversial was the illegal agreement to have a Military base in Berbera and recognize Somaliland region of Somali republic  as " newly independent Somali state". This was against the UNITY and territorial integrity of the Somali Republic.The Somali government went to Arab League and United Nations Security Council to denounce this flagrant violation of Somali Unity and territorial integrity.This is the back ground of the Speaker Jawaari and Damu Jadid parliamentarians tug of war against Somali government.They were all allied and bribed by the UAE government to have a regime change in Somalia. The narrative that there is a power struggle between Qatar and UAE in Somalia is a smoke screen to cover the criminal deeds of the UAE in Somalia.The UAE has made a political convergence with the Somali Salafist business cartels to whom it was a Banker in Dubai banks from early 90". This Somali groups control the economy and together with ETHIOPIA they planned to have a Confederation of Somali Clan Enclaves and a secessionist Somaliland region.  The government of Farmaajo/ Khayre Nationalist/Federalist agenda to preserve the Unity of the Republic and Somali territorial integrity under one Nation State in a federal system goes against the plans of UAE. The UAE and ETHIOPIA and the Somali Salafist Business Cartels ,Puppet Leaders of regional Clan enclaves  who are behind the fight of the so called MPs and politicians to have regime change have not ended and it will continue till we have a democratically elected government by a multiparty system and the stranglehold of the economy by the Salafist Cartels is changed or diminished and our security services is made of National Army,Intelligence and Police under the command of the federal government.

#Somalia: NATIONAL "TRASFORMATIONAL LEADERSHIP" WITH A COMPR...

#Somalia: NATIONAL "TRASFORMATIONAL LEADERSHIP" WITH A COMPR...: Introduction:             This post is the continuation of the earlier post called " The presidency of Farmaajo: How things are and...

#Somalia: NATIONAL "TRASFORMATIONAL LEADERSHIP" WITH A COMPR...

#Somalia: NATIONAL "TRASFORMATIONAL LEADERSHIP" WITH A COMPR...: Introduction:             This post is the continuation of the earlier post called " The presidency of Farmaajo: How things are and...

NATIONAL "TRASFORMATIONAL LEADERSHIP" WITH A COMPREHENSIVE VISION / PROJECT.

Introduction:  
          This post is the continuation of the earlier post called " The presidency of Farmaajo: How things are and major issues". Here I write about the major issue of Tranformational Leadership needed to achieve change and prosperous, secure, democratic future for Somali Republic Nation-state in a Federal system.


Meaning of Trasformational Leadership.


                Never a Nation-State or peoples in the history of Mankind has ever changed its predicament, advanced, made progressive social changes, political and technological changes without a Transformational Leaderships at the "helm" of the Nation-State, communities which have a clear "vision" of its "role" in "history" and personal "legacy". Today Somali Republic is at a cross road: after years of clan based civil wars, some camouflaged as religious wars, after so called governments installed by Ethiopia in Somalia with the Salafist Business Cartels as allies and Endemic corruption/ Organized crimes as business as usual; we have came at a time when we need a National Transformational Leadership which Unites, brings change, rallies together all Clan communities, citizens of the Somali Republic and brings social, economic and political development for the Somali Republic Nation-State in a federal system. Before I go into detail on what is needed in Somali Republic-as I see it- let explain in a scholastic way what is Transformational Leadership. On Wikipedia.org its said:

  "Transformational leadership is a style of leadership where a leader works with subordinates to identify needed change, creating a vision to guide the change through inspiration, and executing the change in tandem with committed members of a group.^[1] Transformational leadership serves to enhance the motivation, morale, and job performance of followers through a variety of mechanisms; these include connecting the follower's sense of identity and self to a project and to the collective identity of the organization; being a role model for followers in order to inspire them and to raise their interest in the project; challenging followers to take greater ownership for their work, and understanding the strengths and weaknesses of followers, allowing the leader to align followers with tasks that enhance their performance." Still from Wikipedia.org:                 "Transformational leaders look towards changing the future to inspire followers and accomplish goals, whereas transactional leaders seek to maintain the status quo, not aiming for progress." 
 The concept of transformational leadership was initially introduced by James V. Downton, the first to coin the term "Transformational leadership", a concept further developed by leadership expert and presidential biographer James MacGregor Burns. According to Burns, transformational leadership can be seen when "leaders and followers make each other advance to a higher level of morality and motivation."[3
Still from Wikipedia.org
"Transformational leaders are described to hold positive expectations for followers, believing that they can do their best. As a result, they inspire, empower, and stimulate followers to exceed normal levels of performance. Transformational leaders also focus on and care about followers and their personal needs and development.^[7] Transformational leaders fit well in leading and working with complex work groups and organizations, where beyond seeking an inspirational leader to help guide them through an uncertain environment, followers are also challenged and feel empowered; this nurtures them into becoming loyal, high performers." Period.

          I relied the professional, scholastic and knowledge based of what we call Transformational Leadership. How we can apply this principles and political theory to our society and dysfunctional Somali political system? Did President #Farmaajo fits in this kind of Leadership style? Did the present Leadership part of the team of President Farmaajo can be Transformational Leaders? 
       The answers to this question are Yes if they promote National Agenda, Unity, change Clan-Enclaves cantonal subdivision of the Republic and make a real federal system, promote social justice, have government role in the economy on national resources exploitation, and promote government based on Rule of law. No if they cannot stop endemic corruption and cannot change Clan Enclaves subdivision, total control of the economy and education by Salafist Business Cartels. Yes president #Farmaajo has had a message and style based on the Unity of the Somali citizens and a project to bring change and better future to Somali Republic citizens from when he was PM. But the week point is there is not a planned " comprehensive vision/project" and the capacity of the Elites governing is mostly uneducated on governance issues, without any idealistic-Nationalistic thinking or are elites put there through so called election( in parliament) supported by foreign powers  and not representing the interests of the people citizens. Those who have the capacity and honesty to work for their Nation-State are in the minority in government, civil servants and security services. But in the last election the two chambers has been infused with elites who have National outlook and values and stand for the rights of Somali citizens from whatever Clan or sub clan. 

Historical Background 

               In the Somali history the pre-independence Political parties in the north and south and the National State as institutions were agents of Change or what we can call today Transformation Leadership institutions. After independence they established our modern legal system, the modern education system, the civil servants system and a private sectors including banks. The leaders of those independent parties were Transformational Leaders for a short time and lost their visions due to the ideological weakness of the political elites and reverted to Clan sectarianism for power grabbing/corruption. But mostly the neo-colonial state itself had a goal to preserve the interests of the former Colonial powers and not nurture democracy and Rule of Law.
 The Siad barre military regime used a so called populist socialist agenda and a -so-called scientific socialism which cannot be implemented in practice in a pastoral/nomadic society-  but brought social change in education,health, promotion of National culture- writing of Somali language and using it for education- and used the state machine forcefully to implement its policies abolishing  independent civil society groups and political parties except his own Socialist party and state controlled civil society organizations. But after the 77" war and from 80" reverted to Clan sectarianism  and become just a ruling elites who lost direction and had not any vision anymore. The regime left the Warsaw pact group alliance of the Soviet Union and never fully joined the Western alliance led by US.(today our ally are those who assist us to fight against the Jihadist and assist us with Nation building for a government based on the Rule of the Law, just society in a federal system). This is one of the reasons the West and East bloc’s stood aside or participated in the collapse economically and politically, security wise of the Siad barre regime and assisted the emergence of Ethiopia as regional sub colonizing power.  But unfortunately also become a power to be reckoned the Somali Salafist Movement which flexed its muscles from the 90" in the Somali Republic (they had a secret alliance with Ethiopian regimes from 80") while the ETHIOPIA-IGAD group supported warlords first and later Puppet leaders for regional Clan Enclaves political systems.

Clan Enclaves Sectarianism/ Salafist Jihadist Models.

         The Clan sectarianism of the last 30 years has made great inroads in our social, political and cultural thinking that we totally lost what we acquired in the 40 years before it. We lost the concept of civil society in Trade Unions, Farmers associations, Business associations, lawyers association( some revived from 90" by foreign NGOs but still localized as Clan Enclaves groups), political parties based on ideological National values, the  Nation-state( as a model for the country) as neutral institution between Clans and political competing ideas; the role of state security services as enforcer of Law and defender of National Borders, paying of taxes to service public service, all that has been lost. Having one Nation state to whom we are all citizens have been lost, we advocate a secession like Somaliland and a quasi-like confederate system by leaders of Puntland, Jubbaland and South West etc. Now days every aspect has to be based on Clan affiliation and clan loyalty and Somalis are sub divided in Clan Enclaves regional states as for jurisdiction. The mind set of Somalis has been changed all this years by following the role model of Clan Enclaves Leaders, Salafist Business Cartels to be greedy, corrupt and divisive. Only personal gain and Clan culture, Salafist model are emulated and seen to be best. Our beloved religion Islam has been  wrongly interpreted by Salafist Jihadist and made a so- called ideological tool to kill, oppress Somalis of the Republic and make Fatwa against anybody who oppose Salafist Jihadist Agenda and stands for a National state. The concept of Nation hood has been changed to make Somali citizens without any Nation state except so called Clan Enclave regions and our young men fighting for Jihadist in foreign Lands for so called "Caliphate"; while homeland is safe haven and controlled by Jihadist, Salafist Business Cartels, criminals and puppet Leaders of Clan Enclaves. 

National Trasformational Leadership with a "Comprehensive Vision/ Project". 

             Even Transformational Leadership must a have a vision for the country which tries to solve all its ills like Jihadism, Clan sectarianism and social, political and economic problems. First we a need a Leadership which can restore the trust of people-citizens in their rulers. The people/citizens must be convinced to sacrifice for a project in which they “believe” and which can "change" their livelihoods and the country will be changed for the better future for all. They must be convinced theoretically by explaining to them the “vision/project”  that will bring change and see that the Leaders are themselves sacrificing for the good of the Federal Nation State. We need politicians who are Role Models and are not Puppet Leaders to foreign powers, allied with Salafist groups and Leaders who are free from corruption and Clan Sectarianism. Nobody is perfect but at least we don’t need re-cycled so called politicians who are only servants to Salafist Business Cartels some even criminals using politics as cover. We need politicians and bureaucrats who promote government by Rule of Law and social justice, meritocracy for all people-citizens. We need a law after the next election-in 4 years’ time- where Somali politicians, bureaucrats, security services, Army officers, must carry Somali passports and  be Somali citizenship and therefore accountable to the citizens and Somali law. In the next constitution we must have a vision/project agreed by all Somali communities/citizens  as principles in the constitutional norms of the Federal Republic and also agreed by a Constituent assembly made by a National community Elders, civil society groups, parliamentarians of the two chambers before any referendum. The #Farmaajo government must spell to the Somali people-citizens how its sees this vision/project and have a dialogue, discussion about it with all Somali intellectuals and start in the Media a dialogue about how they see the next constitution. This diplomatic style of running the national affairs makes the enemies of Somali republic use always the media to influence negatively the people and divulge misinformation. After the trip to Puntland and Galmudug  the Somalis have convinced of the national Agenda of the government and that its promoting the National interest of the Somali federal Nation-State in an inclusive way.